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Do you think you would still be employed at your job, if you missed 15 deadlines?
Winning a war on paper is easy, especially when you outnumber your opponent in terms of active-duty military.
But turning calendar dates into battlefield victories is another matter.
High-ranking commanders often promise quick results, only to watch timelines crumble against harsh realities.
Because even though Russia had far larger armed forces than Ukraine when the invasion started in February 2022, Russia’s military leaders are seeing deadline after deadline slipping away.
Moving the goalposts
Russian commanders have repeatedly promised President Vladimir Putin a swift victory in eastern Ukraine. According to the Kyiv Post, reports from the Institute for the Study of War show that Moscow has set and missed at least 15 separate deadlines to capture the Donbas region.
The promises started early in the invasion and continued into recent months. According to Reuters, military leaders assured Putin in August 2025 that Ukrainian defenses would collapse by autumn. When that failed, the Financial Times reported officials pushed the target to late 2026, while Bloomberg noted promises of a winter victory.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky tracked these shifting promises in a public update. He noted that in 2025, Russian officials tried to convince Washington that Ukraine would fall, setting three separate deadlines that passed without success.
“Already this year, the Russians have again pushed back the date,” Zelensky said, adding that the latest deadline is now Dec. 31.
Ground to a crawl
Moscow’s military goals remain far out of reach. Figures from the Institute for the Study of War show Russian forces control roughly 80 percent of Donetsk Oblast. Analysts at the institute stated that Kremlin goals “continue to remain detached from reality.”
Progress has slowed to a crawl. Russian troops captured under one percent of Ukrainian territory in 2025. On certain parts of the front, advances dropped to just 15 to 70 meters per day.
The trend continued straight into 2026. Data from the tracking group DeepState showed small territorial gains in recent months, but May ended in a net loss of 11 square kilometers despite heavy infantry attacks.
Fading hopes
Military experts doubt Russia can complete its objective anytime soon. Sources close to the Russian defense ministry told Bloomberg that internal officials consider Putin’s timeline unrealistic, expecting combat in Donbas to drag into 2027.
Battlefield conditions make quick moves nearly impossible. Dara Massicot, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, noted that Ukrainian forces maintain an active defense while Russian troops rely on small infantry groups of just one or two soldiers.
Expanding drone networks have also created wide kill zones on both sides. These dangerous areas make basic troop movements and supply deliveries a constant hazard.
