Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
Putin struggles to fill his ranks to keep fighting in Ukraine, making it very unlikely, he would expand the fighting by targeting NATO.
Moscow cannot expand its war beyond Ukraine, according to Finnish President Alexander Stubb.
In an exclusive interview with the German outlet Bild, the Finnish leader explained that Russia lacks the resources to attack NATO or open a second front.
Russia’s only remaining escalation option is troop mobilization. Russian forces lose up to 35,000 soldiers monthly while recruiting just 27,000, creating severe battlefield deficits.
Recent Russian laws restricting movement point to autumn conscription. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov dismissed these reports on Aug. 25, calling them fabricated stories planted by Ukraine to destabilize Russia.
Stubb expects new draft measures regardless of Kremlin denials. Calling up more citizens, however, risks serious domestic backlash inside Russia.
Lines of defense
The risk of a nuclear strike in Ukraine is also minimal, Stubb told Bild. China has established a firm boundary regarding atomic weapons.
“This summer, the Chinese foreign minister visited me, and I brought up the subject,” Stubb told Bild. “And he said, ‘We will never allow that to happen.’ And I believe that is a pretty effective deterrent.”
Western military strength provides an overwhelming shield, making any aggression against NATO member states irrational.
“Firstly, I have intelligence,” Stubb told Bild. “And secondly, we have a deterrent, and this deterrent is stronger than that of any other military power anywhere in the world.”
Time for dialogue
Despite recent hybrid attacks, Stubb urges European leaders to keep a cool head rather than reacting with alarm. Panic plays right into Moscow’s hands.
European nations must also resume direct communication with Russian leadership to prevent dangerous miscalculations. Silence creates dangerous illusions.
Stubb explicitly welcomed CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s surprise visit to Moscow, stressing that diplomatic channels remain vital for European stability.
“We must understand, you in Germany and we in Finland, that Ukraine is the best security guarantee we have against Russia,” Stubb stated. “If Ukraine loses, we lose.”
