Nicolai Haugsted
Trump says Belarus can offer America a better fertilizer price while Lukashenko points to a major obstacle.
Donald Trump has found a new bargaining chip in his increasingly testy relationship with Canada.
American farmers need fertilizer, Canada supplies most of it, and the US president believes Belarus could help Washington secure a considerably better price.
Trump is now publicly talking up a potentially huge potash agreement with Minsk, despite questions over Belarus’s close relationship with Russia and the practical problem that Alexander Lukashenko says his country has very little left to sell this year.
Asked Tuesday whether money from such a deal could ultimately strengthen Russia’s position in its war against Ukraine, Trump dismissed the concern.
“No, not at all,” he said according to TV3.it.
Trump wants a cheaper deal for American farmers
Potash is hardly the sort of commodity that normally produces presidential headlines, but it matters enormously to agriculture.
The potassium-rich material is a crucial ingredient in fertilizer, and the United States relies heavily on foreign suppliers. Canada currently provides roughly four-fifths of US potash imports, making its northern neighbor by far Washington’s most important source.
Trump believes Belarus could offer some useful competition.
“Belarus has a lot of potash, and our farmers need good prices,” Trump told reporters Tuesday during a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the United Nations.
“We’ll continue to go with Canada, but Belarus would like to sell it for a much lower price.”
His comments softened the impression created just one day earlier, when Trump announced that Washington was pursuing what he described as a “massive Deal” with Belarus.
“The pricing would be for substantially less than we are currently paying to Canada, very good news for our Farmers and Ranchers,” Trump wrote.
Canada, in other words, has not been fired as America’s fertilizer supplier. Trump has simply made very public that he is shopping around.
Lukashenko has some awkward news
Minsk appears interested in doing business with Washington.
Supply could be another matter entirely.
Lukashenko said Monday that Belarus cannot provide large quantities of potash to the United States this year because its production has already been committed to existing customers.
“Even if we wanted to supply potash to other destinations, to Western markets, we simply do not have the volumes for that — all of it has already been sold under contract,” Lukashenko said, according to a statement from his office.
His remarks create a curious mismatch.
Trump is publicly advertising the prospect of a major new source of cheaper fertilizer. Lukashenko, meanwhile, is effectively pointing toward the warehouse and saying the available stock has already been spoken for.
No publicly disclosed agreement has yet established how much potash Belarus could actually provide, when deliveries could begin or what price Washington would pay.
Russia hangs over the proposed deal
Questions surrounding Moscow are difficult to avoid.
Belarus remains one of Russia’s closest allies and allowed Russian forces to use its territory during the invasion of Ukraine. Western governments imposed extensive sanctions on Minsk following both Lukashenko’s crackdown on political opposition and his government’s support for Russia.
Belarus’s geography presents another complication.
Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe has argued that Belarusian potash would likely have to travel through Russia before reaching American buyers, raising questions about whether switching suppliers would indirectly benefit Moscow.
Trump was asked Tuesday whether that possibility concerned him.
His answer was straightforward.
“No, not at all.”
Trump instead returned to the economics of fertilizer and his desire to obtain lower prices for American farmers.
Washington and Minsk are already getting closer
Talk of fertilizer arrives alongside a broader thaw between the Trump administration and Lukashenko’s government.
Washington has eased some sanctions on Belarus during negotiations that have also involved the release of political prisoners.
US restrictions against major Belarusian potash interests have been lifted this year, while European restrictions remain an obstacle to traditional export routes.
Lithuania is particularly important to the equation because Belarus historically relied on routes through the country to move potash toward international markets.
Current EU sanctions continue to complicate that option, leaving logistics as another question hanging over Trump’s proposed deal.
