Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
Ukraine is facing as harsh winter, and not just because of the weather.
With ground advances grinding to a halt, Russian President Vladimir Putin is pivoting to a new theory of victory, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assesses in its September 27 update on the war.
He now wants a Ukrainian surrender before spring 2027, and to get it, Moscow is betting everything on massive long-range strike campaigns.
The front in Ukraine is stuck. ISW notes that a prominent Kremlin-aligned military blogger noted on September 27 that ground movement has effectively ceased.
To break the deadlock, Moscow is pouring billions into jet-powered drone swarms and ballistic missiles, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reporting a planned $12 billion Russian investment in drone production.
A risky bet
Still, the strategy carries serious financial risks. The Russian blogger warned that relying on endless long-range bombardment is expensive and cannot go on forever, especially as Ukrainian forces launch deeper retaliatory strikes inside Russia.
Moscow appears to be counting on Ukraine running short of Patriot interceptors this winter.
If those defense systems run out, vital power grids could crumble under constant pressure.
Race for the skies
To avoid ordering a risky and unpopular second wave of military mobilization, Putin is leaning into his aerial arsenal. Expanding drone production is far cheaper than drafting hundreds of thousands of citizens. It causes fewer social ripples, too.
The current push relies heavily on jet-powered drone models like the Geran-5. During the night of September 26, Russian forces launched large waves of these fast drones against Odesa, Mykolaiv, and Kyiv.
Ukraine is racing to build an effective response. Zelensky reported on September 26 that Ukrainian forces have intercepted 55 percent of jet-powered Shahed drones this month, downing more than 1,500 out of 2,730 incoming targets.
Kyiv is now field-testing new interceptor drones designed specifically to shoot down fast jet-powered threats. Ukrainian official Kyrylo Budanov stated on September 27 that mass deployment of these high-speed interceptor drones could start within a few months. That could neutralize Moscow’s winter blitz.
