Nicolai Haugsted
China may be watching one major political event before deciding its next move on Taiwan.
For years, 2027 has loomed over Washington’s thinking about one of the world’s most dangerous geopolitical flashpoints.
China has been building a military capable of taking Taiwan by force, while successive U.S. administrations have watched Beijing’s expanding arsenal and increasingly sophisticated exercises with concern. Yet American officials now believe the calendar may be moving in a different direction.
A Chinese invasion before 2028 is becoming less likely, according to two current U.S. officials, a former official and another person familiar with Washington’s assessment who spoke to Reuters. Military readiness problems inside China and Taiwan’s next presidential election are among the reasons behind that view.
Nobody is suggesting that Beijing has abandoned its ambitions.
Instead, Washington’s latest assessment points toward something more complicated: Xi Jinping still wants the People’s Liberation Army capable of taking Taiwan by force, but having that capability and deciding to use it are two very different things.
2027 was never necessarily invasion day
Much of the anxiety surrounding 2027 stems from Xi’s reported instruction that the People’s Liberation Army should possess the capabilities required to seize Taiwan by force by that year if ordered to do so.
The date also carries symbolism, marking 100 years since the founding of the PLA.
China has never publicly confirmed such a readiness order and has never announced 2027 as a deadline for attacking Taiwan. Beijing has also refused to rule out using force to achieve what it calls “reunification.”
U.S. intelligence offered another important distinction earlier this year.
“China, despite its threat to use force to compel unification if necessary and to counter what it sees as a U.S. attempt to use Taiwan to undermine China’s rise, prefers to achieve unification without the use of force, if possible,” U.S. intelligence agencies said in their March threat assessment.
Washington therefore does not currently treat 2027 as Beijing’s predetermined invasion date.
China’s corruption purge may have slowed the clock
Xi’s own campaign against corruption is among the factors complicating China’s military preparations.
Since taking power in 2012, Xi has overseen a vast disciplinary campaign reaching deeply into the Communist Party, government bureaucracy and armed forces.
Senior military figures have increasingly found themselves caught in the crackdown.
Investigations and expulsions have hollowed out the Central Military Commission, leaving only two active officials from what had previously been a seven-member body. Xi himself, who chairs the commission, is one of those remaining officials.
American officials told Reuters that the PLA consequently achieved less militarily last year than Chinese leaders had probably intended.
Military exercises were also smaller and less threatening than during several previous years, according to one U.S. official. Activity has picked up somewhat this year, but Washington believes Chinese military officials remain dissatisfied with their level of readiness.
Taiwan’s 2028 election could change the calculation
Military capability represents only one side of Beijing’s decision-making.
Politics could provide another.
American officials believe China is interested in seeing what Taiwanese voters decide in 2028. Some officials in Beijing are reportedly hoping the election could produce a government more receptive to closer political integration with China.
President Lai Ching-te and his Democratic Progressive Party take a very different position.
Lai and the DPP emphasize Taiwan’s separate identity, while Beijing considers the island part of Chinese territory. Taiwan’s government rejects Beijing’s sovereignty claim and maintains that its people should determine their own future.
Another DPP victory would give the party a fourth consecutive presidential term.
Lai winning reelection could prove particularly significant to Beijing’s calculations, according to the people who spoke to Reuters.
“If that happens, I think the situation becomes pretty complicated,” one U.S. official said according to Digi24.
The remark does not amount to a prediction that China would invade in 2028. Rather, the sources believe Beijing could become more inclined to consider military options from that point onward if Taiwan’s political direction continues moving against Chinese preferences.
Xi has not dropped the military option
Any apparent delay should not be confused with China abandoning preparations for a potential conflict.
U.S. officials believe Xi has retained his goal of giving the PLA the capabilities necessary to seize Taiwan by force by 2027.
More pieces simply need to fall into place.
“There are way too many pieces that aren’t quite in place yet for what would be the most difficult military operation any military has attempted probably since the Allied invasion of Normandy,” one U.S. official told Reuters.
Chinese planners are also believed by U.S. officials to have studied lessons from the wars in Ukraine and Iran.
Washington’s assessment is that Beijing sees speed as crucial to any hypothetical attack. Chinese forces would want to avoid becoming trapped in a prolonged conflict after launching an operation against the island.
