‘Super-lame duck’ president: Election expert predicts the ‘end of the Trump era’

Election time means two things: The first is the changing of political agendas with a new Congress. The second is that pollsters and political analysts become famous for their ability (or inability) to predict how the election will go.

A midterm election in the middle of a president’s second term usually means that the phrase “lame duck presidency” is thrown around. Consequently, a president’s influence is often diminished and they are essentially waiting out the last two years before a new president is elected.

Now, a famous political analyst is taking that term and expanding it. And he is predicting Trump may fall under his brand-new category. According to him, it might be the end of the Trump era.

Nate Silver predicts Trump may become a ‘super-lame duck’ president

One of the most famous aforementioned pollsters and political analysts is Nate Silver, who was the founder of the site FiveThirtyEight, a site that made polling and prediction mainstream in American politics back when Barack Obama was elected president in 2008 and re-elected in 2012.

He has since left the site and is now independent, making the rounds in the American political sphere to share his predictions for the midterm elections. Silver believes that this election on Tuesday will be “monumental.”

“If the election goes roughly as the polls say it will, then in some ways it would mark the end of the Trump era, I think. He’ll still be president for two more years. But the minute the election, the votes, are counted, the 2028 election campaign begins, and if Trump has a bad night, as polls show, then he’s a super-lame duck, right? You might draw an analogy to George W. Bush after 2006.”

Silver is referring to the midterm election in 2006, in which the Republican Party lost both the House and the Senate after a disastrous venture into the Iraq War that soon became what doomed the last two years of Bush’s presidency.

Silver has a track record of being wrong about Trump

It is important to note that Nate Silver does not have a good history of predicting how Donald Trump and his party will fare in elections.

Back in 2016, he famously dismissed Donald Trump as a fake candidate, writing that “Trump is the first candidate in modern presidential primary history to begin the campaign with a majority of his own party disliking him.”

He also claimed that Hillary Clinton had a 79% chance of winning the presidential election and that Joe Biden would have a hard time winning against Trump in swing states like Arizona and Georgia back in 2020.

It remains to be seen whether or not Silver is right about Trump and the GOP this time, because even though he is not on the ballot, Trump has told people to vote as if he were.

Silver even seemed to acknowledge that with a tweet a month ago showing how polling errors usually occur because polls have a bias toward the Democratic Party.

This article is made and published by Daniel Wolfram, who may have used AI in the preparation