Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
Western defense officials keep debating how badly the Ukraine war has worn down Russia.
Estonia’s military leadership has put a specific date on the Kremlin’s recovery. The country shares a direct land border with Russia, and its top general says Moscow’s armed forces will be rebuilt as early as 2027.
In the 2025 Estonian Defense Forces Yearbook, Andrus Merilo, the commander of the Estonian Defense Forces, laid out the timeline. “In my opinion, 2027 is the year when Russia’s combat readiness will be restored,” Merilo wrote, according to Estonian public broadcaster ERR.
Merilo also rejected the common Western expectation that the Ukraine war will leave Russia incapable of threatening its neighbors. The war, he wrote, “will not end with Russia losing the ability to conduct hostilities against us.”
The commander tied Vladimir Putin’s political survival directly to the continuation of conflict. In Merilo’s assessment, Putin’s ability to stay in power for the rest of his life depends on keeping the country at war, and Russia will keep probing for new targets once the Ukraine phase ends.
A frontline NATO state revises its defense plan
The assessment is already reshaping operational decisions. In October, Estonia began moving its 1st Infantry Brigade headquarters from Tapa to the eastern town of Jõhvi, about 30 miles from the Russian border.
The country also said it would build a new military base for up to 1,000 troops in Narva, on the border itself.
Brigade commander Colonel Tarmo Kundla told The Financial Times that the shift reflects a new forward-defense doctrine: “We have to start from the border and win from the first battles.” The previous plan was to slow a Russian advance while awaiting NATO reinforcements.
No imminent attack, but a two-year clock
Estonia’s spy services draw a sharper distinction between the near term and the medium term.
The Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service, in its February 2026 annual report, assessed that Russia had no intention of militarily attacking any NATO member state in the coming year. European rearmament, it said, has raised the cost of any such move.
What the Estonian Defense Forces are planning for is the year after that. In his essay for the yearbook, Merilo named five areas Estonia must bring to a “new normal” before 2027, including a sustainable manpower pipeline and combat readiness across air, land, sea and cyber.
