Camilla Jessen
Despite mounting global pressure, Western governments believe Vladimir Putin is politically unable to end the war in Ukraine.
Despite repeated international calls—including from the United States—for Russia to accept a peace deal with Ukraine, there is growing consensus among Western officials that President Vladimir Putin may be unable to agree to peace without risking serious consequences at home, according to reporting from Bild.
Sources cited by the German newspaper say that Putin’s grip on power is now so tightly bound to the war effort—politically, economically, and socially—that withdrawing from Ukraine could destabilize his regime.
“Russia has not yet achieved its military goals. The defense industry has been inflated with huge investments. Hundreds of thousands of Russians are making handsome money from the war,” Bild reports.
All this makes it very difficult for Putin to find a way to compromise.
A War-Propped Economy on the Brink
According to Russian economists, if military sectors are excluded, the Russian economy is essentially in recession.
Industries such as food production, coal, metals, building materials, and machine manufacturing are all in decline.
“The only thing keeping it afloat is the defense industry,” Bild notes.
Western analysts argue that any peace deal would likely trigger a dramatic contraction in defense spending—leading to widespread layoffs, bankruptcies, and economic instability in an economy already stretched thin.
Another source of concern for the Kremlin is the growing number of war veterans returning from Ukraine. These soldiers, many of whom were paid far above the average Russian wage, could become a social and security threat if Moscow cannot reintegrate them into civilian life.
“Those who went to the front line as volunteers often received recruitment bonuses worth over €40,000, plus salaries several times higher than average,” said Margaret Klein, a Russia expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.
If the Kremlin cannot offer these people a future, the risk of violence rises sharply.”
The article warns that veterans from past conflicts in Afghanistan and Chechnya have historically been involved in organized crime, and a similar outcome could emerge from this war—especially in regions with low living standards and limited opportunities.
Fear of Collapse Paralyzes Kremlin Diplomacy
Economist Alexandra Prokopenko, formerly of the Russian Central Bank and now at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, believes that the fear of collapse is exaggerated but real within Kremlin circles.
Even if peace doesn’t automatically crash the defense sector, Putin’s political survival increasingly appears tied to continued conflict, rather than compromise.