Asger Risom
Moscow presents itself as Tehran’s ally, but its real ambition may be to turn Middle East chaos into a global diplomatic windfall. Here’s what Russia could gain from escalating tensions.
Moscow presents itself as Tehran’s ally, but its real ambition may be to turn Middle East chaos into a global diplomatic windfall. Here’s what Russia could gain from escalating tensions.
Moscow’s quiet power play
Russia isn’t fueling the flames just for spectacle. By embedding itself in both Israeli and Iranian diplomacy, Putin is positioning Moscow as an indispensable broker in the region.
Friend of everyone, ally of no one
The Kremlin has spent years cultivating ties with both Netanyahu and Iranian leaders. Now it’s cashing in on that double act, offering itself as the only player trusted by both sides.
Distraction from Ukraine
While attention veers toward the Middle East, pressure on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine wanes. Fewer headlines about Kyiv mean less urgency from the West to intervene.
A chance to boost oil revenue
Even though Israel has avoided striking Iran’s export terminals, markets have reacted nervously. Rising oil prices offer Moscow a financial lifeline amid wartime sanctions.
Diplomacy as leverage
Putin’s goal isn’t just de-escalation—it’s transformation. Russia wants to shift from being seen as a global aggressor to a global peacemaker.
Playing all sides
Despite selling drones to Iran and cozying up to Tehran, Moscow still keeps its distance on key arms deals. Its real loyalty is to leverage, not ideology.
Israel’s calculated restraint
So far, Israel hasn’t touched Iran’s biggest oil infrastructure. That’s not mercy—it’s strategy. Tel Aviv wants to pressure, not plunge the world into economic chaos.
Keeping China in mind
Any strike on Iranian oil exports would disrupt China’s supply chain. Washington is quietly urging Israel to hold back—something Moscow knows it can exploit.
A growing diplomatic vacuum
The more chaotic the Middle East becomes, the more vital Russia appears. With each crisis, Putin aims to prove he’s a leader the world can’t ignore.
From pariah to power broker?
As the West grapples with multiple flashpoints, Moscow is betting it can turn chaos into credibility. For Putin, the war in the Middle East is more than an opportunity—it’s a stage.