Kathrine Frich
While not an official exit, the freeze marked a significant diplomatic rupture.
While not an official exit, the freeze marked a significant diplomatic rupture.
Armenia Walks Away from ‘Russian NATO’
Armenia has signaled plans to leave the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a military alliance seen as Moscow’s version of NATO.
This decision delivers a fresh blow to Vladimir Putin, who has relied on the bloc as a pillar of Russian influence in post-Soviet Eurasia.
CSTO: Moscow’s Strategic Counterweight to NATO
The CSTO was created to mirror NATO’s collective defense model, committing member states to mutual military support under Article 4.
Russia has long viewed the alliance as essential to maintaining its sphere of influence and security buffer along its western and southern flanks.
Armenia’s Growing Discontent with Moscow
Tensions between Yerevan and the Kremlin have simmered for years, but came to a boil after Russia failed to prevent Azerbaijan’s 2023 military victory in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Russian peacekeepers deployed to the area were widely viewed as ineffective.
A De Facto Withdrawal in 2024
In response to Moscow’s inaction, Armenia effectively froze its CSTO membership in February 2024.
While not an official exit, the freeze marked a significant diplomatic rupture.
Prime Minister Pashinyan told reporters on Wednesday: “It is more likely that we will withdraw from the CSTO than that we will unfreeze our membership.”
Armenia Eyes the European Union
Compounding the Kremlin’s woes, Pashinyan also indicated that Armenia is now looking westward, toward potential European Union membership.
This pivot away from Russia and toward Brussels signals a remarkable transformation in Armenia’s foreign policy orientation.
Anti-Armenian Rhetoric Fuels Fury
In July 2025, Armenian authorities lodged an official complaint against Russia, accusing it of broadcasting hostile propaganda.
Yerevan condemned the Kremlin for allowing openly unfriendly media attacks on Armenia’s leadership, further fraying diplomatic ties.
Russian Troops in Armenia Stir Concerns
Russia maintains a military base in Gyumri, Armenia, part of its Southern Military District.
Ukrainian intelligence has reported that Moscow is reinforcing its troop presence there.
This was interpreted by many as an intimidation tactic amid Armenia’s distancing from the CSTO.
Nagorno-Karabakh: The Breaking Point
The turning point came in 2023, when Azerbaijan launched a successful operation to reclaim Nagorno-Karabakh.
Armenia’s historical claim to the enclave crumbled under fire, and Moscow’s refusal to intervene decisively shattered any remaining trust.
Kremlin Struggles to Maintain Influence
Russia’s influence across the Caucasus appears to be waning.
Amid a grinding war in Ukraine and mounting domestic challenges, Putin is facing diplomatic erosion even among his supposed allies.
Armenia’s shift is the latest sign of this unraveling.
The End of Eurasian Solidarity?
The CSTO was once touted as a pillar of post-Soviet unity. But Armenia’s looming exit could trigger a domino effect, with other members re-evaluating their loyalties.
The Kremlin’s ability to project unity through the alliance is under severe strain.
