Edith Hejberg
He fears Trump is “pointing the gun” without the intent to pull the trigger, undermining U.S. credibility globally.
Michael McFaul, former U.S. ambassador to Russia and current Stanford University professor, has issued a stark warning about Donald Trump’s latest approach to Vladimir Putin. McFaul believes the president is making one of the gravest diplomatic errors possible, threatening Russia without following through.
A Sudden Shift on Ukraine
McFaul calls Trump’s recent statements on Ukraine an “extraordinary change” from his earlier stance.
While Trump has shifted positions on foreign policy before, McFaul says this pivot is unusually significant and unexpected.
The Original Strategy: Appease Putin
In Trump’s first term, McFaul explains, the strategy was to give Putin much of what he wanted: keeping Ukraine out of NATO, effectively recognizing Russia’s annexations, and lifting sanctions. In exchange, the hope was that Putin would end the war.
Concessions That Favored Moscow
Trump’s early proposals placed intense pressure on Ukraine to make major concessions.
Such a deal, McFaul warns, would have been a disaster for Kyiv but a major win for Moscow, yet Putin still rejected it, choosing instead to escalate.
A Fear of Looking Weak
According to McFaul, Trump realized that his appeasement approach was failing and damaging his image.
“Looking weak” is something Trump reportedly despises, and McFaul believes this perception prompted the rhetorical shift toward a tougher line.
Misreading Putin’s Mindset
Both the Obama and Trump administrations assumed Putin was a transactional leader who could be bargained with.
McFaul counters this view, describing Putin as driven by ideology, history, and a vision to unite the Slavic world, objectives not easily swayed by deals.
The Battlefield, Not the Bargaining Table
McFaul argues that Putin will not stop unless he is halted militarily. Diplomatic pressure alone, he says, is unlikely to succeed because Putin sees the conflict as a mission to reverse historical defeats, including the loss of Ukraine.
The Danger of Empty Threats
Drawing on a lesson from former U.S. Secretary of State George Shultz, McFaul stresses the importance of credibility in diplomacy: never make threats unless you’re ready to act.
He fears Trump is “pointing the gun” without the intent to pull the trigger, undermining U.S. credibility globally.
Putin’s Bet on American Fatigue
McFaul warns that Putin believes time favors Russia. By dragging out the conflict, the Kremlin hopes the U.S. and its allies will lose interest, potentially allowing Moscow to achieve its goals without major concessions.
How the War Might End
In McFaul’s view, wars typically conclude when one side wins outright or when both sides are stalemated. Neither condition exists in Ukraine today. Ultimately, he says, Ukrainian forces, not diplomacy, will have to stop the Russian invasion.
