Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
We know what would happen in case of an external attack – but what about an internal fight?
We know what would happen in case of an external attack – but what about an internal fight?
All for One and One for All
We all know the musketeer oath of NATO – you know, that one that states that an attack on one member state is an attack on all members of the alliance.
32 nations ready to fight back
NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) consists of 32 member states.
It was created in 1949 as a defensive pact to collectively defend the members against feared aggression from the Soviet Union.
Internal bickering
The alliance started out with just 12 countries, but it has since expanded to 32 member states (with Finland and Sweden as the newest members).
But defense is one thing, politics is another – and not all NATO-member states are best friends.
Trumps threats against Denmark
Donald Trump has stated that he wants Greenland to become part of the US. He has not ruled out the possibility of using force to achieve this goal.
Greenland is an autonomous territory in the Kingdom of Denmark, meaning an American invasion of Greenland would effectively be an act of aggression against fellow NATO-member, Denmark.
Greece vs. Turkey
Two other NATO-members, Greece and Turkey, have actually had issues with each other for decades.
One of the main rivalries between the countries is the Aegean Sea dispute.
It’s a complex set of interrelated conflicts, but one of the main points of disagreement is territorial waters.
6 or 12 nautical miles
Currently, both Greece and Turkey maintain a 6-nautical-mile territorial sea in the Aegean, according to the Republic of Türkiye Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
A major point of contention is whether Greece can unilaterally extend its territorial waters to the internationally recognized 12 nautical miles, which Turkey views as a potential casus belli.
Collective defense – but what about internal fighting?
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as well as the increased hybrid warfare targeting NATO-countries, the alliance has repeatadly emphazised union and solidarity.
But what would happen if a war broke out between two members of NATO?
What does Article 5 say?
Article 5 states that an attack on any member of the Alliance will be considered an attack on all.
However, this applies to an external force/aggressor.
No clear mechanics
If two NATO-members where to start fighting, the alliance actually does not have any mechanism for handling such a situation.
It would undoubtedly trigger an intense diplomatic crisis, but how that would pan out, and what the solution would be, remains unknown because of the lack of established procedures.
Determining aggressor?
The biggest question to be answered in such a situation would be how to determine who the aggressor and the victim is.
As NATO is a defensive alliance, it is likely that any NATO-intervention would side with the victim, but this is not certain.
Expulsion?
NATO’s Article 13 outlines the process for a member state to withdraw from the alliance.
However, there is no mechanism or legal precedence for expelling a member state from the alliance.
It is unknown if a violation of Article 8 would be considered such a conflict of the NATO treaty, that it could start an expulsion process.
A test of the core principles
A scenario with an internal war in NATO would test the fundamental principles of alliance and the commitment of its members to peaceful resolution.
The Alliance’s response would depend on intense political consultation and individual member decisions, rather than a pre-programmed collective defense action.
