Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
The Russian general has since left Russia.
The Russian general has since left Russia.
What is happening?
Moscow is reportedly preparing a “greyzone” strike on Poland before the end of the year, according to intelligence shared during the DSEI arms fair in London earlier this month.
Intelligence is currently working on confirming the information.
The planned strike would fall short of open warfare but could seriously destabilize NATO’s eastern flank.
What is a greyzone attack?
Greyzone warfare refers to actions that fall between traditional military conflict and peacetime activities — like cyberattacks, disinformation, and deniable drone strikes.
It’s a tactic Russia has used before, blurring the line between provocation and plausible deniability.
This strategy avoids triggering NATO’s collective defence clause while still undermining cohesion and security across the alliance.
MiG-31 Jets Violate Estonian Airspace
Tensions flared further when three Russian MiG-31 jets breached Estonian airspace, circling over the Gulf of Finland for 12 minutes before being intercepted.
These jets are capable of carrying hypersonic missiles, raising alarm over their potential threat.
Estonia’s Prime Minister Kristen Michal called the incident “unprecedentedly brazen.”
Western leaders react swiftly
Donald Trump warned the breach could cause “big trouble,” while UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper affirmed Britain’s support for Estonia, calling for sustained pressure on the Kremlin.
New sanctions from the UK and EU have already been announced in response.
Defector reveals plot against Poland
The most serious revelation came from a Russian defector — a one-star general believed to be a Major General — who has fled the country.
He claims the Kremlin is planning a limited but deliberate non-nuclear strike on Polish soil, aimed at provoking NATO and testing its political resolve without sparking full-scale war.
NATO leaders assess alarming intelligence
The defector’s warning has been shared with the US and is now under active review by senior transatlantic officials.
British and American sources say the intelligence, while still being verified, has already escalated internal NATO discussions around potential responses to such a provocation.
Poland warns of looming conflict
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk issued a grave warning, stating his country is now “closer to military conflict than at any time since the Second World War.”
The message underscores the rising stakes and the seriousness with which Warsaw views Russia’s increasingly bold provocations.
Finland faces Russian information warfare
While military threats escalate, Russia is also waging an information war.
Finland, one of the newest NATO members, has been targeted by Kremlin propaganda echoing tactics seen before the 2022 Ukraine invasion.
Sergei Lavrov mocked Finland’s shift from neutrality, while another official claimed the nation’s southeast was being “depopulated” without Russian tourists.
Russia’s strategy: Bleed the West economically
Experts warn that Russia’s drone tactics are not only militarily provocative but also economically strategic.
“It’s economic warfare,” said Mykola Kuzmin of the Henry Jackson Society according to Express. “Russia builds drones for under £100,000. NATO uses multimillion-pound fighter jets to shoot them down. That’s not sustainable — and Russia knows it.”
The Suwałki Gap
A key strategic location, the Suwałki Gap links Poland to the Baltic States while cutting off Russia’s militarised exclave, Kaliningrad.
“In Cold War terms, Kaliningrad is their Cuba,” Kuzmin said.
It’s bristling with electronic warfare gear and serves as a Russian outpost — any move here sends a message to the entire NATO alliance.
Winter is coming
As temperatures drop and political tensions rise, NATO officials are racing to prepare for further Russian provocations.
“There’s no suggestion of a full-scale invasion,” a UK source said. “But something calibrated, deniable, confusing — that’s how Russia operates.”
The alliance now faces a dangerous winter, where even a slight hesitation could have far-reaching consequences.
This article is made and published by Jens Asbjørn Bogen, which may have used AI in the preparation
