Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
it’s estimated that up to 60 % of the Russian oil and gas export travels through that body of water.
It’s estimated that up to 60 % of the Russian oil and gas export travels through that body of water.
The Gulf of Finland
Tucked between Finland and Estonia, the Gulf of Finland is just 80 miles wide at its broadest point — yet its geopolitical importance is hard to overstate.
This slim stretch of water may become a flashpoint if tensions between NATO and Russia erupt into open conflict.
More than a sea lane
Although small in size — slightly larger than Wales — the Gulf acts as a strategic maritime and aerial bridge between Russia and the rest of the world.
It’s a key export route, giving Moscow access to global markets, even under heavy international sanctions.
The shadow fleet slips through
Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet” sails these waters regularly.
These vessels often have unclear ownership and are used to quietly export oil and gas, skirting sanctions designed to limit Moscow’s war-funding capabilities.
Their movement continues largely unchecked.
Estonia sounds the alarm
Estonia’s foreign minister, Margus Tsahkna, warned of the scale of activity. “Russia is using this corridor to export 60% of oil and gas from Russia,” he told ABC News.
“It’s very intensive. We’re talking about maybe 400 or more vessels per week. It’s a huge thing.”
NATO’s eyes are on the Gulf
Tsahkna stressed that if conflict broke out, NATO forces would quickly move to shut the corridor down.
“It will be closed and controlled totally by NATO, our allies and us,” he said.
But for now, Russia still has the right to navigate the waters legally.
Why the Gulf matters to Russia
Sanctions have hit the Russian economy, but the Gulf remains a lifeline.
Through it, Moscow moves energy exports that generate critical funds for its military.
The narrow corridor offers one of the few maritime paths that still gives Russia direct access to world markets.
A headache for Western sanctions
Security analyst Tom Keatinge explains the significance of Russia’s shadow fleet.
“It has enabled Russia to keep its coffers full and to really dampen the impact of sanctions,” he told The Sun.
With little oversight, these ships help finance the Kremlin’s war effort despite international pressure.
A dangerous game in the skies
It’s not just the sea route drawing concern. The skies over the Gulf are increasingly crowded with military aircraft from both sides.
“There’s a lot of military planes flying over that area… it’s very sensitive for the Russians,” Keatinge noted, calling the situation volatile.
Escalating airspace violations
Russian aircraft have entered Estonian airspace eight times since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Four of those violations happened this year alone, creating growing concern among NATO leaders over Moscow’s increasingly provocative military posture.
The brazen MiG-31 incident
One of the most alarming recent episodes came when three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets entered NATO airspace over the Gulf.
They stayed for 12 minutes, flying nearly 125 miles west.
Officials called the move “unprecedentedly brazen,” prompting serious diplomatic fallout.
NATO pushes back
Estonia responded by calling for a NATO Article 4 consultation.
The alliance issued a sharp statement warning that it would use “all necessary military and non-military tools” to defend itself.
It also condemned Russia for displaying a “pattern of increasingly irresponsible behaviour.”
Estonia exercises restraint — for now
Despite the clear violation, Estonia chose not to engage militarily.
“There was no immediate military threat to Estonia this time,” said Tsahkna.
But he made clear that NATO protocols are in place should the situation worsen: “NATO could have acted.”
This article is made and published by Jens Asbjørn Bogen, which may have used AI in the preparation
