Kathrine Frich
Across the continent, Europeans are increasingly aware that the conflict with Russia is no longer confined to the battlefields of Ukraine.
Cyberattacks, sabotage attempts, disinformation campaigns and repeated drone intrusions into NATO airspace have all contributed to a growing sense that a hybrid war is already under way.
Each new incident fuels the perception that these pressures could escalate into something far more dangerous.
A new multinational poll now suggests that this anxiety is shaping public opinion: most Europeans believe the risk of an armed confrontation with Russia is high.
Perceptions shaped by geography
The survey, conducted at the end of November by Cluster 17 for the French geopolitical publication Le Grand Continent, questioned 9,553 people across nine EU states: France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Poland, Portugal, Croatia, Belgium and the Netherlands.
More than 1,000 participants were sampled in each country.
When asked whether Russia might go to war with their country in the coming years, 51 percent of respondents said the likelihood was “high” or “very high.”
Poland, sharing borders with Russia and Belarus, showed by far the strongest alarm: 77 percent of Poles viewed the threat as serious. In France, 54 percent felt the same, while 51 percent of Germans saw a high risk as well.
Italy recorded the lowest level of concern, with 65 percent describing the risk as low or nonexistent, highlighting how distance from Russia tends to influence perceptions.
China seen as unlikely adversary
While concern over Russia has intensified, Europeans were far more relaxed about China. Eighty-one percent said they believed a war with Beijing was unlikely in the coming years.
According to Le Grand Continent, this makes Russia by far the most defined state-level threat in European public opinion.
Terrorism remains another major fear, with 63 percent saying their country faced a significant risk of conflict with terrorist organizations.
Doubts about national defence
Across the nine countries, confidence in national defence capabilities was low. Sixty-nine percent said their country would be “not at all” or “rather not” capable of defending itself against a Russian attack.
France, the only surveyed country with nuclear weapons, showed the greatest confidence: 44 percent believed the nation could defend itself.
Belgium, Italy and Portugal were the most doubtful, with more than 85 percent in each stating their country would struggle to resist Russian aggression.
Sources: Ziare.com, Le Grand Continent
