Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
The big unknown is, how Russia would react.
European governments are confronting an escalation of Russian covert activity that has moved from the fringes of security briefings into daily policymaking.
What once seemed out of bounds — open planning for retaliatory measures — is now being discussed in EU and NATO circles, according to Politico’s reporting.
Politico reports, that officials across the bloc describe an environment where drones, sabotage attempts and probing operations have become routine.
Many say that unless Europe signals readiness to answer, Moscow will keep pushing.
Joint offensive actions on the table
European diplomats told Politico that proposals now circulating range from joint offensive cyber actions to accelerated public attribution of hybrid attacks, allowing governments to swiftly identify Russia as responsible.
Some are also exploring unannounced NATO exercises meant to unsettle Moscow.
Recent months have brought repeated drone violations over Poland and Romania, unexplained devices near airports and military facilities, and incidents of signal interference.
There have also been Russian aircraft and naval intrusions, and an explosion on a Polish railway line carrying equipment destined for Ukraine.
Growing political alarm
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told lawmakers last month that the continent “must respond to Russia’s hybrid warfare,” warning that failure to act would only widen the “grey area” exploited by Moscow.
Germany’s junior defense minister Florian Hahn told Welt TV that Europe must decide “how long we are willing to tolerate this type of hybrid warfare … [and] whether we should consider becoming more active in this area ourselves.”
Politico recalled previous Russian operations in Europe, including assassinations, attacks on ammunition depots, support for far-right movements, and interference campaigns targeting elections in states such as Romania and Moldova.
The Prague-based think tank Globsec estimates more than 110 sabotage attempts occurred across Europe between January and July, mainly in France and Poland, and largely linked to individuals with ties to Moscow.
How will the Kremlin react?
Russian President Vladimir Putin suggested in October that global politics had become “creative,” adding that Russia is tracking “the growing militarization of Europe” and questioning whether it is “time to respond.”
European leaders insist they want to avoid direct conflict with a nuclear-armed state, but several warn that restraint cannot mean paralysis.
Sweden’s defense chief, General Michael Claesson, said: “We can’t afford to be fearful and have too many fears about escalation. We have to be firm.”
NATO has pledged stronger air and drone defenses for its eastern flank after Russian drones were downed over Poland. EU officials have echoed that call.
Sources: Politico, Reuters, Welt TV, Globsec
