Kathrine Frich
Nearly four years into Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, signs of exhaustion are emerging far beyond the front line.
Economic strain, prolonged fighting and the absence of a clear endgame are reshaping how many Russians view the war and their own future in it.
New analysis suggests that among those sent to fight, expectations of peace are no longer focused on the Kremlin.
Shifting hopes
Russian soldiers increasingly believe that an end to the war will come from political change abroad rather than decisions made in Moscow, according to a report published by Euromaidan Press and cited by TVP World.
The analysis argues that some soldiers now place greater hope in US President Donald Trump than in Vladimir Putin when it comes to ending the conflict.
“The Russian army no longer fights out of conviction. It fights out of lack of alternatives,” wrote the article’s author, Liubov Tsybulsk, an expert in communication and information.
“Many believe that political changes abroad, not those in Moscow, will determine when they return home,” she added.
War weariness
According to the report, confidence in the Kremlin’s so-called “special military operation” has been steadily eroded by economic pressure and the war’s growing cost to Russian society.
As Ukrainian strikes inside Russia have become more frequent, the sense of security traditionally provided by the state has weakened, even as authorities continue to demand loyalty and sacrifice from citizens.
The analysis describes a slow erosion rather than a sudden collapse of public consent.
“Russia’s social contract is not breaking down in a dramatic, revolutionary way. It is gradually disintegrating from all sides,” Tsybulsk wrote.
Mobilisation limits
The report notes that after the 2022 mobilisation drive triggered a mass exodus of Russians seeking to avoid conscription, the Kremlin has avoided large-scale call-ups.
Instead, authorities have relied on alternative recruitment methods, including financial incentives.
Even those incentives are now shrinking, the article says, as war funding comes under strain.
Some soldiers have reportedly been forced to purchase parts of their own equipment, as state support becomes less reliable.
Budget strain
According to Euromaidan Press, around 40% of Russia’s projected budget for next year is allocated to the military, police and security services.
That leaves fewer resources for civilian needs, reinforcing public anxiety about living standards.
State propaganda, the article says, warns that a Russian defeat would push the economy to conditions “worse than in the 1990s”.
Meanwhile, peace discussions involving US, Ukrainian, Russian and European officials have intensified in recent weeks, with Trump signalling that ending the war is a key priority of his administration.
Sources: Euromaidan Press, TVP World, Digi24.
