August M
Rising global temperatures are expected to sharply increase the destruction of food crops by pests, according to a new scientific analysis. Researchers say the world has so far avoided a worst-case scenario, but that window may be closing.
They warn that current farming systems are increasingly exposed as climate change accelerates pest growth and spread.
Mounting threat
According to reporting by the Guardian, scientists have concluded that losses of key global crops to pests will rise significantly as the planet warms. Wheat, rice and maize are forecast to suffer losses of about 46%, 19% and 31% respectively if global heating reaches 2C.
Insects such as aphids, caterpillars, locusts and stem borers are thriving in warmer conditions. Higher temperatures allow pests to reproduce more quickly, survive winters more easily and attack crops for longer periods each year.
Warming is also enabling pests to spread into regions that were previously too cold, including higher altitudes and areas further from the equator.
Regional shifts
The researchers said the biggest increases in pest damage are expected in temperate regions such as Europe and the United States. In some tropical areas, insects may already be close to their heat tolerance limits, though land clearing for agriculture is creating new opportunities for infestations.
Global trade is further accelerating pest movement, as insects are transported unintentionally through food exports. At the same time, intensive farming practices are undermining natural pest control.
Heavy use of pesticides and fertilisers, along with habitat destruction, is reducing populations of insects that naturally prey on crop pests.
Fragile food system
Pests and diseases already destroy about 40% of global crop production, creating what scientists describe as a major food security challenge. Separately, climate change itself is expected to cut yields of wheat, rice and maize by 6–10% for every 1C of warming.
“The world is focused on these major grains – wheat, rice, maize, soybean – and it’s a very simplified and vulnerable system,” said Prof Dan Bebber of the University of Exeter.
He warned that monocultures could be devastated by a single pest outbreak and said current systems have relied on conditions that no longer exist, notes The Guardian.
Rethinking agriculture
The analysis, published in Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, focused only on insect pests and major grain crops, meaning total risks may be underestimated.
The authors argue that diversification is key to resilience, including planting multiple crop varieties together and restoring natural habitats to support predators such as parasitic wasps.
They also highlight traditional mixed farming systems and the use of artificial intelligence to predict pest outbreaks as potential tools to reduce risk.
“We were living on borrowed time,” Bebber said. “Now we need to do things differently.”
Sources: The Guardian
