Kathrine Frich
Doubts are growing over how accurately Russia’s top leadership understands the war in Ukraine.
Recent events have renewed scrutiny of what information reaches the Kremlin and how it shapes Vladimir Putin’s decisions.
A high-profile claim from the front, quickly contradicted by Kyiv, has become a symbol of those concerns.
Claims and reality
In late November, Colonel-General Sergei Kuzovlev told Putin that Russian forces had “completed the liberation of Kupiansk,”.
This is a strategically important town in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region, the Financial Times reported.
During a visit to the command post, Putin asked if the operation was finished and was assured the city was under Russian control.
Days later, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky released a video filmed at the entrance to Kupiansk.
“I personally went to Kupiansk to show the world that Putin is lying,” he said.
Independent assessments cited by the Financial Times indicate Russia has not fully controlled the town since early 2022.
Despite the contradiction, Kuzovlev was awarded Russia’s Gold Star medal, the country’s highest military honor.
Filtered briefings
Western officials told the Financial Times that Russian military and security services routinely provide Putin with reports that exaggerate battlefield successes, stress Russia’s resources and minimize setbacks.
These assessments, they said, have helped convince the president that victory remains achievable at limited cost.
Although Putin meets advisers who warn about the war’s economic strain, the optimistic tone of military briefings has shaped his outlook.
US Vice President JD Vance referred to this gap in October, describing a “fundamental mismatch of expectations” that complicates diplomacy.
Russia’s messaging has also influenced audiences abroad.
Keir Giles of Chatham House said Moscow’s narrative had been “very well” received by figures close to Donald Trump, reinforcing the perception that Russia is advancing rapidly.
Public confidence
Since October, Putin has held six public briefings on the war, more than at any point since the invasion, according to Faridaily.
At several of the briefings, he appeared in military uniform.
During a lengthy press conference last week, he said Russian troops were advancing “along the entire front line” and promised new successes by year’s end.
Asked about Zelensky’s Kupiansk video, Putin dismissed it, claiming Ukraine does not control the city and suggesting the footage was filmed outside it.
The Gerasimov factor
Putin’s main military briefer is General Valery Gerasimov, chief of the general staff.
Critics have long accused him and former defense minister Sergei Shoigu of shielding the president from reality, a charge that resurfaced after repeated discrepancies between official claims and events on the ground.
Analysts say this internal “self-reinforcing loop of disinformation” has had operational consequences.
Dara Massicot of the Carnegie Endowment said Gerasimov provides predictability, even at the cost of heavy casualties.
“The human losses required to capture the rest of Donetsk do not seem to bother him too much,” she said.
Sources: Financial Times, Faridaily, Digi24.
