Kathrine Frich
As Ukraine approaches 2026, public mood is defined by exhaustion and cautious expectation.
After years of conflict, society is no longer driven by simple answers, but by a complex mix of fatigue, resilience and unresolved hope.
New polling and sociological analysis suggest that while most Ukrainians still reject surrender, many now see diplomacy as the only realistic way forward.
Between despair and hope
According to a sociological assessment by Oleksii Antipovici, head of the Rating Group, the emotional state of Ukrainians in 2025 can be summed up as bleak but not defeated.
In an interview with RBC Ukraine, he said: “If we were to sum up the year 2025 in one word, it would be depression. But, in two words: depression and hope. The majority is waiting for the signing of a peace agreement.”
Years of constant pressure, loss and uncertainty have worn down morale.
Daily life continues, but the strain of war has become deeply embedded in society.
At the same time, expectations of an eventual peace agreement remain widespread, even as confidence in how and when it might happen remains fragile.
East and west divide
Attitudes toward compromise differ sharply across regions. In western Ukraine, where the war is felt less directly, rejection of territorial concessions is strongest, with many insisting the fight must continue.
In eastern regions closer to the front, constant shelling and drone attacks have altered perspectives.
Residents there are more open to compromise, questioning the cost of continued conflict and asking why the suffering must persist.
Overall, opposition to territorial concessions increases steadily from east to west, reflecting how proximity to violence shapes political attitudes.
Negotiations, not surrender
Nationally, nearly two-thirds of Ukrainians believe the war can only end through diplomacy, while about one-third support fighting until Ukraine restores its 1991 or 2022 borders.
When asked about realistic outcomes, close to 80% see negotiations as the only viable solution.
Of these, 60% support talks involving international partners, while 20% favor direct negotiations with Russia.
Just over 10% back continuing the war until all occupied territories are liberated.
Support for negotiations does not mean acceptance of territorial loss.
Antipovici stressed that occupied regions remain a societal “red line,” saying: “Nobody will recognize the occupied territories as Russian, and nobody wants withdrawal from areas under Ukrainian control.”
Fractures and future risks
Differences between eastern and western regions, as well as between frontline veterans and civilians, continue to shape social tensions.
Another concern is demographic.
Almost one-third of Ukrainians living abroad no longer seriously plan to return, raising fears of long-term population decline.
According to Ukraine’s military intelligence service, February 2026 could offer a genuine opportunity for a peace agreement, though any deal would likely involve painful choices and possibly a national referendum.
Sources: RBC Ukraine, Rating Group, Ukrainian military intelligence, Ziare.com
