Kathrine Frich
The space above Earth is getting busier, and scientists say the risks are no longer confined to orbit.
Researchers are warning that debris falling back through the atmosphere could pose a danger much closer to home.
One scenario, once considered remote, is now being taken seriously.
A study published last year suggests the chance of space debris intersecting with busy airspace is rising. Experts say 2026 could mark a turning point.
Crowded orbit
Low Earth orbit stretches from roughly 100 to 1,200 miles above the planet.
According to scientists, it now contains an estimated 40,000 pieces of debris, ranging from defunct satellites to fragments of spacecraft.
This congestion has been building for decades. In 1978, NASA scientists Donald Kessler and Burton Cour-Palais warned of what later became known as the Kessler syndrome, a theory predicting cascading collisions as orbit becomes more crowded.
If such a chain reaction were to occur, satellites essential for navigation, communication, farming and travel could be destroyed.
Falling back down
As orbit fills up, more debris is re-entering Earth’s atmosphere. Most of it burns up, but not always in a controlled way.
According to a paper published in early 2025, there is a 26 percent chance that space debris will pass through some of the world’s busiest airspace during an uncontrolled re-entry in 2026.
That equates to more than a one-in-four likelihood.
Researchers stress that this does not mean a collision will definitely happen, but the probability is no longer negligible.
Aircraft risk
The concern is not limited to large satellites. Smaller fragments can also be dangerous, particularly if they intersect with aircraft flight paths.
Benjamin Virgili Bastida, a space debris systems engineer at the European Space Agency, explained the risk to Space.com.
“Aircraft can be affected by much smaller pieces of debris,” he said.
He compared the danger to planes flying through volcanic ash, where tiny particles can damage engines and critical systems.
Recent close calls
In the summer of 2025, a SpaceX spacecraft re-entered the atmosphere over Europe. The event led to temporary airspace closures as authorities assessed the risk.
That incident raised fresh questions about how aviation authorities should respond to uncontrolled re-entries.
Experts say improved coordination between space agencies and aviation regulators will be crucial.
While catastrophic scenarios remain unlikely, researchers warn that the growing volume of debris means near-misses may become more common.
Sources: Space.com, European Space Agency, NASA, Ladbible
