Kathrine Frich
A major weapons agreement now taking shape could shift power balances in a conflict that has already drawn in outside actors.
Analysts say the move may weaken Moscow’s standing in a region where it has sought to expand its reach.
The potential deal highlights how new players are stepping into spaces once dominated by Russia.
Deal taking shape
Pakistani authorities are in the final stages of concluding a weapons agreement with Sudan worth about $1.5 billion, according to Reuters.
The supplies would go to the Sudanese Armed Forces, which have been fighting the Rapid Support Forces for more than two and a half years.
Reuters reported that the talks are close to completion, though the final structure of the deal has not been publicly confirmed.
Russian setback
Analysts at Defense Express say the agreement could significantly disrupt Russia’s plans in Sudan and reduce its influence in the region.
They point to Moscow’s long-standing ambition to build a naval base in Port Sudan, which would have been Russia’s first military base in Africa since the Soviet era. Those plans have already been delayed by the civil war.
“Defense Express notes that arms sales by Pakistan could significantly impact the interests of the Russian Federation in the region,” the analysts wrote.
Strategic implications
According to Defense Express, the issue goes beyond battlefield dynamics.
The analysts say the deal could remove Sudan’s need to rely on Russia for weapons in exchange for hosting a military base.
“This is not only about the Sudanese government gaining an advantage in the civil war over the Russian-backed Rapid Support Forces,” they wrote, “but also about eliminating the need to establish a Russian military base in the country.”
Russia has been accused of backing the RSF through indirect channels, a claim Moscow has denied.
What Pakistan offers
Reuters estimates the package could include 10 Karakoram-8 light attack aircraft, more than 200 reconnaissance and kamikaze drones, and air defence systems.
Less likely, but still possible, are Super Mushshak trainer aircraft and JF-17 Thunder fighter jets, jointly developed by Pakistan and China.
Pakistan has recently promoted the JF-17 as a flagship export product, even offering it to Saudi Arabia.
Battlefield impact
Analysts say Pakistani drones and aircraft could help the Sudanese army regain air superiority it enjoyed earlier in the conflict.
The RSF has increasingly relied on drones to capture territory, weakening the army’s position.
It remains unclear how Sudan would finance the deal. Reuters reported that Saudi Arabia could provide financial backing.
Sources: Reuters, Defense Expressm, WP
