Kathrine Frich
Military planners across Europe and Asia are stepping up preparations amid fears that the world is edging toward a wider conflict.
The warnings are being framed less as distant speculation and more as contingency planning.
A global defence expert says the risk has risen sharply compared with the start of the decade, with several flashpoints capable of igniting something far bigger.
Warnings spread
Writing for the Daily Express, defence analyst Peter Apps recalls a meeting in early 2024 where Sweden’s senior leaders told the public that, if attacked, they must fight back “with weapons in hand and at the risk ofour lives”.
He noted the message drew backlash at home, with critics accusing officials of fuelling panic.
Apps said NATO’s then military committee chairman, Dutch Admiral Robert Bauer, backed Sweden’s blunt approach and argued other nations should follow suit.
He added that officials at Britain’s defence intelligence hub at RAF Wyton were already describing the moment as “truly dangerous times”.
Apps also questioned whether the UK’s stated plans, including raising defence spending to 2.5% and then 3% of GDP, have translated into enough real-world readiness, pointing to concerns over air defences and the ability to expand the army quickly.
Paths to escalation
Apps wrote that tensions between the United States and Europe, including a dispute linked to President Donald Trump’s talk of seizing Greenland, have rattled NATO unity.
He said estimates of a future global conflict vary, but he put the odds at 30-35% over the next decade.
He argued one potential trigger is Asia, particularly the risk of a Chinese move against Taiwan.
Apps described Beijing’s long-running claims, Taiwan’s democratic identity, and the US stance of “strategic ambiguity” while continuing to arm the island.
He also wrote that Japan is taking a more forward posture, with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi signalling Tokyo might act in a “Taiwan contingency”, even without the US.
Europe’s exposure
Apps suggested a major crisis in Asia could open space for Russia to act in Europe, potentially by testing NATO’s resolve in vulnerable areas.
He wrote that intelligence agencies see a large ground assault as unlikely while Russia is tied down in Ukraine, but some warn rearmament could be rapid after any peace deal.
He pointed to warnings from Polish and German intelligence about the risk of limited operations, and highlighted Estonia’s town of Narva as a possible pressure point, alongside NATO’s Enhanced Forward Presence.
Apps also raised the risks of missile exchanges, overstretched forces, and nuclear escalation, writing that more countries may consider their own atomic deterrents if they doubt US reliability.
Sources: Daily Express.
