Kathrine Frich
Russia’s leadership is publicly promising a technological transformation under pressure from sanctions and war.
Behind the scenes internal assessments paint a far less confident picture.
Documents reviewed by Western journalists suggest a widening gap between the Kremlin’s ambitions and the country’s economic reality.
Hidden dependency
A report prepared by Russia’s Economy Ministry and examined by the Financial Times acknowledges that the country remains heavily reliant on foreign imports in several strategic sectors.
These include mechanical engineering, drone production and the energy industry, all of which are directly linked to Russia’s military capacity.
According to the document, efforts to expand non-energy exports and build stable systems for production and maintenance without Western supplies have largely stalled.
Sanctions, the report admits, have exposed structural weaknesses rather than accelerated independence.
Grand promises
Despite these setbacks, the ministry claims Russia can achieve rapid technological self-sufficiency by 2030.
The document describes economic transformation as inevitable and outlines goals that would sharply reduce reliance on foreign suppliers within the next five years.
Experts who reviewed the plans told the Financial Times that such projections are detached from current conditions.
They point to a stark contrast between the stated 2030 targets and Russia’s actual performance in 2024.
Experts push back
Alexandra Prokopenko, a researcher at the Carnegie Berlin Center for Russia and Eurasia, said the plans focus on areas most exposed to sanctions.
“We are talking about key technologies and industries that are necessary for warfare and ensuring general self-sufficiency, and which are highly dependent on imports,” she said.
Western restrictions have forced Moscow to turn increasingly to China.
A study by the Kyiv School of Economics found that China supplied about 90% of Russia’s imported microelectronics in 2023, underscoring how dependence has shifted rather than disappeared.
Money problems
The document calls for public and private investment in research and development to more than double to 2% of GDP by 2030.
Helija Simola, a senior economist at the Bank of Finland’s Institute for Emerging Economies, described this as unrealistic given Russia’s limited finances and continued reliance on imports.
The report also predicts that 80% of firms in key sectors will use Russian software by 2030, up from 46% in 2024. Prokopenko dismissed the goal, saying:
“These 2030 goals seem more like a fantasy to Putin than a realistic plan.”
Financial strain is already visible. Russia’s 2026 budget was based on an oil price of $59 a barrel, but Urals crude averaged $39 in December.
In response, Vladimir Putin has approved tax increases aimed at raising about $12.3 billion from Russian citizens this year.
Sources: Financial Times, Carnegie Berlin Center, LA.lv.
