Kathrine Frich
Trump’s policies have brought the Pax Americana to an end.
Europe is facing fundamental decisions. Old assumptions about security no longer apply, as global power relations are being reshaped.
Former Estonian President Toomas Hendrik Ilves is calling for a rethink and criticises both the United States and Europe’s own hesitation.
In an interview with the Finnish broadcaster Yle, Ilves describes the current situation as a historic turning point for the European Union.
Europe’s unfinished business
In Ilves’s view, Europe has benefited from stability for years without investing sufficiently in its own structures. This is particularly evident in defence, technology and energy policy.
A fragmented capital market has slowed Europe’s ability to innovate, Ilves said in the Yle interview. Without joint financing, neither the energy transition nor the development of Europe’s own AI capabilities can be achieved.
The internal market is also incomplete. While goods circulate freely, services often remain tied to national borders.
A call for unity
Ilves argues for a more integrated Europe, even though he rejects the term federal state. What matters, he says, are concrete political steps rather than symbolic debates.
He named joint debt issuance, completed internal markets and coordinated defence procurement as key building blocks. If the EU with 27 members remains unable to act, Ilves considers a tighter core Europe as a possible option.
The former president has been a member of the pan-European movement Volt Europa since 2024.
The role of the United States
Ilves also places Europe’s situation in the context of US politics. Donald Trump’s presidency, he said, has shaken the international order that has existed since the Second World War.
The so-called Pax Americana has ended in a short period of time, Ilves told Yle. US foreign policy has changed so drastically that traditional alliances no longer appear reliable.
Particularly worrying, he said, is a US security strategy from which a hostile attitude towards the EU can be inferred.
Congress as a restraint
Nevertheless, Ilves sees an important stabilising factor in the United States. Congress, he argues, is far more pro-European than the administration of the day and sets limits on extreme policy shifts.
A division of the world into spheres of influence between the US, Russia and China would therefore be difficult to implement. Trump’s behaviour, Ilves believes, depends more on Parliament than is often assumed.
Ukraine as a test case
Looking at the war in Ukraine, Ilves warns of severe consequences if Kyiv were to lose. Millions of people could flee, he said, referring to Russian war crimes:
“Does anyone seriously believe that 35 million Ukrainians, after the massacres and rapes of Bucha or Irpin, would stay where they are?”
Europe, he said, is not prepared for such a refugee movement.
Even after a possible end to the war, Europe must not return to business as usual with Russia. Sanctions, in Ilves’s view, remain the only effective instrument of pressure.
The Nordic and Baltic states, as well as Poland, had warned early about Russia, Ilves noted. The war has fundamentally confirmed that perspective.
Europe stands at a crucial crossroads. The EU must learn to secure its own safety and economic strength rather than relying on old guarantees.
How decisively it acts will determine its role in the future world order.
Source: Yle
