Kathrine Frich
For decades, Vietnam was one of Russia’s most reliable weapons customers in Asia.
That relationship is now under strain as Hanoi looks westward, accelerating talks with European partners and quietly reshaping its military strategy.
Analysts say the move marks a symbolic and practical setback for the Kremlin’s global arms ambitions.
Old reliance
The Vietnamese Air Force has long depended on Soviet and Russian-made equipment.
Its fleet still includes Su-22 strike aircraft, Su-27 and Su-30MK2 fighters, as well as Yak-130 training jets.
This reliance made Vietnam a cornerstone of Russia’s arms exports in Southeast Asia. Moscow benefited not only financially but also politically, maintaining influence through long-term maintenance and training contracts.
Diversification push
That balance began to change in 2022, when Vietnamese authorities publicly declared their intention to diversify future arms purchases.
According to analysts at Defense Express, Hanoi’s goal is to reduce its dependence on Russia.
Talks with France over the possible acquisition of Rafale fighter jets have since gathered pace.
Defense Express says negotiations have advanced significantly, signaling a serious shift rather than a symbolic gesture.
Western alternatives
Interest in the Rafale first emerged in 2024. France and Vietnam already have a defense cooperation agreement dating back to 2013, which has eased discussions.
Vietnam has also scrapped earlier plans to buy Russian T-90C tanks.
Instead, it chose to modernize its aging T-54 and T-55 tanks in cooperation with Israel, further reducing reliance on Russian suppliers.
US re-entry
Since the United States lifted its arms embargo on Vietnam in 2016, Washington has gradually re-entered the Vietnamese defense market.
Hanoi has purchased around $400 million worth of US equipment, including Coast Guard vessels and training aircraft.
Preparations are also underway for the potential acquisition of C-130J transport planes. Vietnam previously explored buying F-16 fighters, but no deal has materialized.
Budget limits
Analysts note that Vietnam’s defense budget, estimated at around $10 billion annually, restricts how quickly it can modernize.
Purchasing multiple fighter platforms at once is seen as unrealistic.
Switching from Russian to Western aircraft also requires major investment.
Air bases must be adapted, new weapons stockpiles built, and logistics systems redesigned, as Russian munitions are incompatible with aircraft like the Rafale.
Slow nato shift
Defense Express also points to Vietnam’s reported order of South Korean K9 155mm self-propelled howitzers as further evidence of a gradual pivot toward NATO-standard equipment.
Ukrainian media say this reflects a long-term plan to align parts of Vietnam’s military with Western standards.
With many legacy systems still in service, the transition is expected to be slow and complex.
Experts argue that Russia is losing not just a major customer but also an important strategic partner in Asia.
Defense Express describes the shift as “a big blow” to Vladimir Putin’s ambitions in the global arms market.
Sources: Defense Express, Wirtualna Polska.
