Kathrine Frich
President Vladimir Putin is signalling that Moscow’s ambitions may not stop with Ukraine.
Security analysts now warn that a single island in the Baltic Sea could play a decisive role in deterring further Russian expansion.
As tensions grow across northern Europe, attention is turning to Gotland.
Strategic location
Gotland, a Swedish island in the middle of the Baltic Sea, has become one of NATO’s most significant defensive positions.
According to The Sun, the island is being rapidly reinforced as concerns mount over potential Russian aggression in the region.
Located about 300 kilometres from Russia’s heavily militarised Kaliningrad exclave, Gotland sits along vital shipping lanes in the northern Baltic.
Control of the island would effectively mean influence over maritime movement in the area.
Despite its medieval towns and reputation as a holiday destination, Gotland is now being outfitted with missile systems, troop facilities and surveillance infrastructure.
Two main goals
Military experts point to two primary objectives behind the build-up.
The first is deterrence: preventing Russia from seizing the island and using it as a launch point against mainland Europe.
The second is countering so-called “gray zone” tactics, including sabotage and intelligence operations targeting Baltic states.
Swedish defence analyst Niklas Granholm told The Sun:
“If you control Gotland and place anti-aircraft, anti-missile and anti-tank systems there, you can control the entire region.”
Former British intelligence officer Philip Ingram added: “The island has control over everything that happens in the Baltics.”
From neutral to NATO
Sweden demilitarised Gotland in 2005, but reversed course after Russia annexed Crimea in 2014. Reinforcements began the following year as Stockholm reassessed regional threats.
Sweden formally joined NATO in 2024, ending decades of military neutrality.
By 2027, around 4,000 troops are expected to be stationed on the island. Equipment includes German Leopard tanks, Swedish CV90 infantry fighting vehicles and air defence systems.
If Russia were to gain control of Gotland, NATO’s only land link to the Baltic states would be the narrow Suwalki Corridor between Poland and Lithuania, a route widely seen as vulnerable.
Russia’s capabilities
Some experts argue that Moscow currently lacks the strength to capture and maintain control of the island.
“Even if they did, the logistics would be practically impossible – there are only NATO countries around,” one expert told The Sun.
Last autumn, Russia intensified sabotage efforts, reportedly using a shadow fleet to breach airspace and damage undersea cables.
Gotland’s position makes it central to monitoring movements toward Kaliningrad and St Petersburg.
Large-scale drills, including Operation Gotland Sentry, were held last year with British, American and Swedish forces. Exercises tested scenarios involving HIMARS and MLRS rocket systems.
Sweden has invested approximately £130 million in strengthening Gotland’s defences.
Sources: LA.LV, The Sun
