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Analysts warn US could be “shocked and defeated” after Ukraine defeats NATO in simulation

Ukraine, drones
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Footage from a military exercise in Estonia show Ukrainian drone operators overwhelming NATO troops in a simulated attack.

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Clips of grenades landing beside armored vehicles and soldiers quickly spread online, fueling headlines that Ukrainians had “defeated NATO.”

Now, one of the drone operators involved says the scenario has been widely misunderstood.

Controlled demonstration

The drills, known as the Hedgehog exercises, were held in 2025 but gained renewed attention after The Wall Street Journal published a report alongside video from the Estonian training ground.

The images showed grenades dropping one after another near trucks as soldiers scattered for cover. The episode soon circulated under the slogan “Ukrainians Defeated NATO.”

But a Ukrainian drone operator using the pseudonym “Nick” rejected that characterization. Speaking to Defense Ukraine, he said the drops were carefully controlled.

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“Two battalions were eliminated in one day. This wasn’t about defeating NATO. It was a controlled scenario, demonstrating how drone warfare is changing modern combat. Ukraine shared real battlefield experience gained during a full-scale war,” he said.

He also noted that during the exercise he deliberately released ammunition next to vehicles and personnel to avoid injuries.

Alliance takes note

For many NATO members, the exercise underscored how rapidly drone warfare is reshaping the battlefield.

According to Der Spiegel, Germany’s Defense Minister Boris Pistorius signed an agreement during a recent meeting with President Volodymyr Zelensky to incorporate Ukrainian combat experience into Bundeswehr training.

“Nobody in NATO currently has more war experience than Ukraine, we must use it,” German officers told Der Spiegel.

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A Bundeswehr spokesperson said the aim is to adapt training at German military centers to reflect the realities of modern war.

Lessons for others

Poland is also analyzing insights from Ukraine’s battlefield experience, Wirtualna Polska reported. Colonel Marek Pietrzak, spokesperson for the Polish General Staff, said knowledge-sharing is already underway.

“Please rest assured. Let no one think that we are not observing or drawing conclusions from the war taking place just beyond Poland’s borders. Of course, the experiences of Ukrainian soldiers are being utilized. This flow is taking place, for example, during the training of Ukrainian soldiers with the participation of the 11th Lubusz Armored Cavalry Division in Żagań,” he said.

Military analysts writing in Foreign Affairs and The Telegraph have similarly urged Western forces to rethink doctrine.

In one article the expert warned:

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“Small, poor countries can surprise and defeat larger, richer ones. Success lies in learning to produce and use vast quantities of cheap weapons, not just a small number of advanced systems.”

They cautioned: “Otherwise, when the next conflict comes, the United States could be shocked and defeated, just as it is happening to Russia.”

Sources: The Wall Street Journal, Der Spiegel, Wirtualna Polska, Foreign Affairs, The Telegraph

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