Kathrine Frich
Vladimir Putin has built a system designed to keep power tightly concentrated in the Kremlin.
But after internal unrest, elite tensions and the shock of the 2023 Wagner mutiny, analysts say the Russian president may be increasingly focused on safeguarding his grip on authority.
According to a British security expert, recent moves in Moscow suggest Putin is strengthening forces loyal directly to him.
Strengthening Rosgvardia
William James Dixon, a fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), told the Kyiv Post that a recent Kremlin decree appears to bolster Russia’s National Guard, known as Rosgvardia.
“Rather than folding the force more tightly into the Defense Ministry, the decree places it firmly outside the regular military chain of command,” Dixon said.
According to his analysis, Rosgvardia now operates under “general operational control” of its director, Viktor Zolotov, who reports directly to Putin.
Dixon described the development as the creation of a “parallel structure” within Russia’s security system.
A force for regime protection
Rosgvardia was established in 2016 by presidential decree and initially functioned largely as a domestic security and policing force.
Dixon argues that “the body is evolving into something closer to a rival military formation, with reports of specialized units and heavier equipment, including tank formations, being developed within its ranks.”
He linked the transformation to the 2023 uprising led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, saying the episode exposed weaknesses in Russia’s existing structures for handling internal threats.
Dixon compared Rosgvardia’s role to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, describing it as a “praetorian force” tasked with protecting the regime.
While Rosgvardia has also been deployed in Ukraine, including in combat and occupation duties in areas such as Donbas, Dixon said its expanded role could deepen divisions within Russia’s broader military establishment.
He warned that the emergence of a privileged parallel force might become “a flashpoint for additional divisions.”
Sources: Kyiv Post, Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), Digi24.
