Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
If there were ever a perfect time for a mic drop, this would be it.
Tuesday, February 24, 2026, will mark four years since Russia invaded Ukraine.
Some argue that the war started eight years earlier with the Russian annexation of the Crimean Peninsula, but when referring to the war in general, February 24, 2022, is largely considered the starting date.
During the first months of the war, Russia made significant territorial gains. Following the full-scale invasion, it quickly advanced and had almost 28% of Ukraine’s territory under control by spring 2022.
After the initial Russian gains, Ukraine launched a counteroffensive, retaking large areas before the war turned into a war of attrition with slow, nearly foot-paced gains for Russia due to its massive numerical advantage.
According to an op-ed by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), published on January 17, 2026, the Ukrainian counteroffensive in spring 2022 reduced the territory under Russian control to 18%, and since then, Russia has gained only 1.5% of Ukraine’s territory.
Donald Trump: Ukraine will lose
In November 2025, the New York Post cited U.S. President Donald Trump as saying that Ukraine would “lose in a short period of time” if it did not sign a peace deal that included withdrawing from the highly contested Donbas region of eastern Ukraine.
The same narrative is being promoted by the Kremlin, which argues that a Russian victory in Ukraine is inevitable.
There is no doubt that the situation in Ukraine is dire, especially for the population, which is enduring near-daily missile and drone strikes from Russia that are destroying energy infrastructure during the harshest winter of the war so far.
But is Ukraine actually losing?
Zelensky’s brilliant response
Marking the end of the fourth year of fighting, the BBC interviewed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The interviewer told Zelensky that some, including Donald Trump, argue that Ukraine cannot win the war and asked whether they were correct in that assessment.
Zelensky’s response said it all:
“Where are you now today? You’re in Kyiv. You’re in the capital of our homeland. You are in Ukraine … Will we lose? Of course not, because we are fighting for Ukraine’s independence.”
The interviewer then asked whether Zelensky meant that Ukraine would reclaim all of its lost territories, to which Zelensky replied:
“In any case, we will achieve that. That is absolutely clear. It’s only a matter of time.”
Sources: Institute for the Study of War (ISW), New York Post, BBC
