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It might explain why Putin fears a ceasefire in Ukraine.
Ending the war in Ukraine will only become possible when the Kremlin realizes that a military victory is out of reach, according to former US special envoy General Keith Kellogg.
In an interview with Japanese broadcaster NHK, Kellogg argued that Moscow must face the limits of its campaign before any meaningful ceasefire can take shape.
Kellogg said Russian President Vladimir Putin needs to accept that further territorial gains in Ukraine are unattainable. Only then could negotiations to stop the fighting begin.
“Putin needs to understand that he will not gain any more Ukrainian territory and recognize Russia’s inability to win the war,” Kellogg said when discussing the conditions needed for a quick ceasefire.
Mounting losses
According to Kellogg, Russian troops have suffered enormous losses since the full-scale invasion began.
He said the total number of dead and seriously wounded soldiers could reach between 1.2 million and 1.4 million.
Kellogg added that international sanctions have also damaged Russia’s military capability and weakened the country’s broader war effort.
He suggested that the Kremlin leadership is aware of the scale of the losses and the long-term consequences of the conflict.
Fear of fate
Kellogg told NHK, Putin may also fear the personal consequences of a failed war.
“Putin is worried that he could become another Nicholas II, the last Russian tsar, who was shot after he abdicated,” Kellogg said.
Nicholas II was overthrown during the Russian Revolution and later executed along with his family, an outcome Kellogg implied may weigh on Putin’s thinking.
An interesting similarity between Nicholas II and Putin is that they both started a war against a much smaller enemy – Putin with Ukraine, and Nicholas with Japan, although an important difference is that Japan declared war on Russia first.
However, Russia suffered a humiliating loss against Japan, marking the first modern victory of an Asian power over a European nation.
Sources: NHK interview with General Keith Kellogg, Encyclopedia Britannica
