Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
Thousands of Russian troops, officials, and air defense systems gathered in one place — it sounds like a golden opportunity for Ukraine.
On Saturday, May 9, thousands of Russian troops, officials, and a large number of air defense systems will be concentrated in and around Moscow.
That day marks the annual Russian celebration of the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany, known as Victory Day, and the Kremlin is reportedly pulling both combat-ready troops from Ukraine back to Moscow in order to fill the parade, as well as air defense systems to protect the Russian capital.
There will also be thousands of cameras broadcasting the celebrations, and with such a concentration of Russian officials, troops, and military hardware, one cannot help but wonder:
Should Ukraine attack the Russian capital on Saturday?
Putin’s unilateral ceasefire
Last week, Putin announced a unilateral ceasefire for May 8 and 9 to mark the Victory Day celebrations.
But speaking to Ukrainian Focus. Morning, a joint project of Espreso and Slava.tv, Colonel Dmytro Kashchenko of the Armed Forces of Ukraine explained why Ukraine is highly skeptical of the proposed ceasefire.
“Putin wants to show that ‘we’re celebrating, we proposed a ceasefire, and look, Ukraine hasn’t reacted.’ And I’m more than certain that there will be provocations — and ones we won’t be able to resist. That will serve as a kind of pretext to show: ‘Look, they were the first to violate [the ceasefire],’” he said, according to Onet.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on May 4 that there had been no official appeal to Ukraine from Moscow regarding the ceasefire. Instead, Zelenskyy announced his own truce, which started last night.
“We believe that human life is far more valuable than any anniversary ‘celebration,’” he explained in a statement on X.
A golden opportunity?
Ukraine has massively increased its long-range strike capabilities during the war, and just a couple of days ago, air raid sirens reportedly sounded in a Russian region 2,000 kilometers from the Ukrainian border.
This places Moscow well within Ukraine’s striking range, and Kashchenko does not rule out an attack on Saturday — simply to send a message.
“Such a parade is a concentration of people and cameras, and therefore broadcast worldwide (…) We could launch a drone strike so that the thousands of cameras recording the parade would show: ‘Look, Ukraine is closing in on you and could destroy both the Russian president [Vladimir Putin] and the defense minister [Andrei Belousov] at any moment,’” he explained.
That being said, he believes Ukrainian resources would be better used elsewhere.
Massive gaps in the Russian lines
If reports about Russia pulling troops and air defense systems out of Ukraine and back to Moscow are accurate, this would place Russian forces in Ukraine at a major disadvantage.
Kashchenko noted that it would be a better idea for Ukrainian forces to exploit this and strike as many key Russian targets as possible.
He mentioned infrastructure targets, command posts, ammunition depots, radar stations, and more as potential targets.
Striking these targets while Russian forces lack air defense coverage in Ukraine could give Ukraine a strategic advantage by disrupting Russian supply lines and even the chain of command.
The map has flipped
On May 2, the Institute for the Study of War released an analysis of the estimated territorial changes in the war over the past six months.
After Russia advanced and gained control of more than 575 km² in November 2025, the Russian advance has ground to a halt, with Ukraine pushing back the occupiers and retaking 116 km² in April 2026.
This is allegedly the largest territorial gain for Ukraine since the summer of 2024.
Sources: Onet, statement on X by Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Russia’s Ministry of Defense, the Institute for the Study of War
