Russia’s threats against Ukraine show Putin does not trust his own air defense, ISW suggests

Ahead of the annual Russian Victory Day celebrations marking the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany, Vladimir Putin has announced a unilateral ceasefire for May 8 and 9.

According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Moscow had not sent an official appeal regarding the ceasefire as of May 4, but Zelenskyy instead announced a Ukrainian ceasefire starting last night.

In a post on X, Zelenskyy also used the opportunity to mock Russia’s inability to defend its own territory:

“It is time for Russian leaders to take real steps to end their war, especially since Russia’s Defense Ministry believes it cannot hold a parade in Moscow without Ukraine’s goodwill,” he said, referring to Putin’s proposed ceasefire as an attempt to avoid a global humiliation on Victory Day.

The Russian Ministry of Defense also issued a stark warning on May 4, when officials threatened a massive missile strike against central Kyiv if Ukraine were to attack Moscow during Victory Day celebrations.

But those threats are actually a sign that Putin recognizes how ineffective Russian air defenses are against Ukrainian long-range strikes.

The alleged threat from Zelenskyy

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noted that various outlets, both Russian and non-Russian, highlighted a quote from Zelenskyy made at the European Political Community summit and later posted on Telegram on May 4.

In it, he said: “Russia has announced that the May 9 parade in Moscow will take place without military equipment. If that happens, it will be the first time in many, many years. They cannot afford to use military equipment, and they are afraid that drones will be buzzing over Red Square.”

This was interpreted as Ukraine planning attacks on Moscow during the Victory Day celebrations, although no additional evidence suggesting this was an actual threat has emerged.

Nevertheless, the Kremlin is clearly nervous ahead of May 9, and this tells us a great deal about what the Russian leadership actually believes rather than what it publicly says.

Putin knows Russia is exposed

The Russian capital, Moscow, is well within range of Ukraine’s long-range strike capabilities, and Putin knows this.

By issuing a threat against Kyiv for allegedly planning to attack the Victory Day parade, the Kremlin is actually showing that it does not trust its own air defenses to protect rear areas within Russian territory.

“Russia’s threat to retaliate against Ukraine for allegedly planned strikes against Moscow during Victory Day reflects Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recognition that he cannot reliably defend these deep rear areas, including his capital, from Ukrainian strikes,” ISW suggests.

The distance from Kyiv to Moscow is less than 1,000 kilometers, and Ukraine has been able to strike targets more than 1,700 kilometers inside Russian territory.

Additionally, reports that Russia is transporting air defense systems from forces in Ukraine back to Moscow for the Victory Day parade could be interpreted as another sign that Putin does not trust the air defense systems already in place in and around the Russian capital.

Sources: Institute for the Study of War, statement on X by Volodomyr Zelenskyy, Russia’s Ministry of Defence, statement on Telegram by Volodomyr Zelenskyy

This article is made and published by Jens Asbjørn Bogen, who may have used AI in the preparation