Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
Gas and oil revenue took the biggest hit.
Russia has started the year with a sharp fiscal imbalance, underscoring the pressure on state finances as energy revenues weaken and war-related spending continues.
Official figures released on Friday show the gap has already grown large, raising questions about whether the government can meet its budget plans for the year.
January numbers
According to data from the Russian Finance Ministry, the federal budget recorded a deficit of 1.718 trillion rubles ($22.3 billion) in January, close to half of the government’s full-year target.
Total revenues reached 2.362 trillion rubles ($30.7 billion), an 11.6% decline compared with the same month last year.
The steepest fall came from oil and gas income, which dropped 50% to 393 billion rubles ($5.1 billion), its lowest level in five years.
By contrast, non-oil and gas tax revenues rose 4.5% to 1.969 trillion rubles ($25.6 billion).
Taxes and spending
Value-added tax receipts climbed nearly 25% to 1.13 trillion rubles ($14.7 billion) after the VAT rate was raised to 22% from Jan. 1.
Even so, higher tax income failed to compensate for the loss of energy revenue. Spending edged down 1.4% year on year to 4.08 trillion rubles ($53.0 billion), but the January deficit still exceeded that of January 2025 by 17%.
The Finance Ministry said the early shortfall reflected front-loaded spending.
Rising risks
Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s cumulative budget deficit has reached 17.4 trillion rubles ($226.2 billion), according to Finance Ministry data.
The ministry expects the annual deficit to narrow to 3.8 trillion rubles ($49.4 billion) in 2026, down from 5.7 trillion rubles ($74.1 billion) last year.
However, a government source told Reuters that lower prices for Russian crude and export problems with India could push the gap to nearly three times the planned level.
Internal estimates suggest the deficit could widen to 3.5%–4.4% of GDP as oil and gas revenues undershoot forecasts and military spending rises, the Reuters source said, adding that spending cuts may be proposed.
Sources: Reuters, The Moscow Times, The Guardian
