Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
It looks like it’s the deadliest offensive of the war so far.
It looks like it’s the deadliest offensive of the war so far.
“One Last Push”
Captured Russian officers have reportedly revealed that Moscow framed this summer’s campaign as “one last push.”
With over three years of war behind them, Kremlin leaders appear determined to crush Ukrainian morale and salvage a symbolic victory—no matter the cost in lives.
Russia’s Death Toll Reaches Record Highs
New modelling suggests that Russia is now experiencing its highest daily death rate since the conflict began.
Though neither side publishes official casualty figures, open-source data, satellite imagery, and territorial shifts help build a sobering picture of the current toll.
Estimating the Unseen
The Economist’s daily war tracker combines over 200 credible estimates from Western intelligence and independent analysts.
This allows for a robust “meta-estimate” of battlefield casualties, creating what might be the most accurate picture of daily Russian losses to date.
Nearly 1.3 Million Russian Casualties
As of July 9th, analysts estimate that Russia has suffered between 900,000 and 1.3 million casualties since the invasion began—190,000 to 350,000 of them fatal.
A Summer Offensive Paid in Blood
Russia’s latest push, which began in earnest on May 1st, may have already cost around 31,000 Russian lives.
Despite the Kremlin’s attempts to spin the offensive as progress, the gains are minimal relative to the human toll.
Ukraine’s Losses Also Mounting
While live data on Ukrainian casualties is harder to come by, the independent tracker UALosses estimates between 73,000 and 140,000 Ukrainian soldiers have died since February 2022.
A Faster Advance, but at Great Cost
Russia’s pace of advance is currently one of the quickest seen in two years—though it still amounts to just 15 square kilometers per day, or roughly the area of Los Angeles International Airport.
The gains come at a terrible price: one death for every 0.038 square km gained over the past year.
89 Years to Victory at This Rate
Even at this accelerated rate, it would take nearly nine decades for Russia to fully conquer Ukraine.
And occupying the remaining parts of the four regions Russia claims—Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia—would take until February 2029.
Putin Doubles Down on Recruitment
Russia is reportedly recruiting 10,000 to 15,000 troops per month—outpacing Ukraine.
Incentives include large signing bonuses and high salaries, avoiding the political fallout of mass conscription seen in Ukraine.
US Support Resumes Amid Escalation
In a notable policy reversal, Donald Trump announced on July 7th that the U.S. would resume arms shipments to Ukraine, saying: “They have to be able to defend themselves.”
