August M
Predicting the outcome of a conflict is tricky for global experts.
Initial assumptions often crumble when reality shifts, forcing superpower governments to rethink strategies. Now, a veteran diplomat suggests a massive turnaround has occurred, reports Kyiv Post.
A sudden shift
A former US Assistant Secretary of State believes the balance of power is moving in a surprising direction. Speaking to the Kyiv Post, Daniel Fried explained that deep-strike drone operations have altered the war’s logic.
“Russia is no longer winning, it is beginning to lose,” Fried stated.
This marks a massive U-turn. In 2022, Washington expected Ukraine to “fight very bravely and lose very quickly.” When that failed, the narrative became that they would “fight very bravely and slowly lose,” according to the diplomat.
Winning over Washington
The changing tide could reshape White House strategy. Fried recalled an early 2025 meeting where Donald Trump told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that his country “didn’t have any cards.”
Things look different today. The resistance has proven its strength, matching the American president’s preference for strength.
“It’s now becoming clearer that Ukraine in fact has a lot of cards,” Fried noted. “Trump loves winners. Ukraine is winning. Putin is beginning to look like a loser.”
This shift has triggered an internal rethink within the US administration. Officials who support Kyiv are gaining influence. A recent G7 agreement highlighted this unity, even if the wording remained cautious.
Practical compromises
The G7 statement promised more air defenses, though Fried noted it was “not definitive in all ways.” Still, American backing sends a clear message.
“But it was a pretty good statement anyway,” Fried added. “And the fact that the US signed onto it is a very good sign.”
This breakthrough might involve a transactional deal. Reports suggest Washington cooperated because European allies offered help with naval mine clearance in the Strait of Hormuz.
Fried prefers unconditional support, stating, “Aid to Ukraine and Ukraine success is in the American interest. Full stop.” Even so, he accepts real-world compromises. “Politics and foreign policy are not for the purists,” Fried concluded.
Sources: Kyiv Post
