Camilla Jessen
Why Russia’s 2025 campaign fell short.
Russia entered 2025 aiming to decisively win the war by fully occupying Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia, while also pushing toward the key port of Odesa. According to Ukraine’s commander-in-chief, General Oleksandr Syrsky, those ambitions failed.
In a year-end assessment published on social media and cited by the Kyiv Post, Syrsky said Ukrainian forces repeatedly blocked major Russian offensives and forced Moscow to delay or cancel planned operations.
“Last year was a great test for us,” Syrsky said, adding that Ukraine did not allow the enemy to impose its conditions “from a position of strength.”
Small gains, huge losses
Independent analysts estimate Russian forces captured between 5,000 and 5,500 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in 2025, less than 1% of Ukraine’s total area, despite deploying between 600,000 and 700,000 troops along the front.
According to Syrsky, Russia paid a heavy price for those gains, with at least 418,000 soldiers killed or seriously wounded.
Estimates from independent monitoring groups and the UK Ministry of Defense broadly align with that figure, the Kyiv Post reports.
Drones change the battlefield
Ukrainian commanders say drones were the single most decisive factor behind Russia’s losses. FPV kamikaze drones, observation drones and strike drones now dominate the front lines.
Initially used as a stopgap when US artillery ammunition deliveries stalled in late 2023, drones manufactured almost entirely in Ukraine now account for at least half of all Russian casualties, according to Ukrainian operators quoted by the Kyiv Post.
Syrsky said the scale of losses repeatedly forced Russian planners to postpone major offensives as assault units ran out of manpower.
Counterattacks and setbacks
Although Russia maintained the initiative for much of 2025, Ukrainian forces carried out limited counteroffensives. The most notable fighting took place around Pokrovsk, a long-standing Russian objective.
Ukrainian assaults near Dobropillya in summer reportedly encircled and eliminated hundreds of Russian troops who had broken through defensive lines. A later Russian infiltration into Pokrovsk was repelled by December, the Kyiv Post reported.
Syrsky acknowledged internal challenges, saying Ukrainian personnel losses fell 13% compared to 2024 but avoiding precise casualty figures. Ukraine continues to face manpower shortages, controversial recruitment laws, exhaustion among long-serving troops and cases of desertion.
Critics inside the military describe Syrsky as an old-school commander who centralizes control and drains units to form elite assault groups. Despite leadership reshuffles elsewhere, President Volodymyr Zelensky has kept Syrsky in command.
Sources: Kyiv Post, UK Ministry of Defense, Digi24
