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The Ukrainian President has challenged Putin to meet him for bilateral ceasefire negotiations Thursday in Istanbul, Turkey – but it’s doubtful that Putin will be there.
The Ukrainian President has challenged Putin to meet him for bilateral ceasefire negotiations Thursday in Istanbul, Turkey – but it’s doubtful that Putin will be there.
The challenge
Ukrainian President, Volodomyr Zelenskyy, has issued a challenge to the Russian President, Vladimir Putin.
Istanbul, Thursday, be there
The challenge is that Zelenskyy wants to meet Putin in person in Istanbul, Turkey, on Thursday to start bilateral peace negotiations. He also invited Putin to initiate a 30-day ceasefire starting Monday, which Russia has rejected.
Putin is wavering
In an unusual statement made 2 AM the night between Monday and Sunday, Putin gave the impression that he was open to restarting negotiations. However, he suggests to start the negotiations from where the talks in 2022 ended, and neither Puting nor Zelenskyy was present at those.
Officials keeping Putin away?
The odds of Putin showing up in Istanbul on Thursday seem slim, but according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), intelligence suggest that Russian officials are pushing for Putin to stay away.
Invitation is “pure spectacle”
According to the ISW, Russian Federation Council Speaker, Konstantin Kosachev, described Zelenskyys invitation as “pure spectacle” and “comedy”. He further claimed that Zelenskyy i strying to blame Russia for what Kosachev claimed was actually Ukraine’s disinterest in actual negotiations.
Chairperson: Russia cannot trust Ukraine
The Russian State Duma Committee on International Affairs Deputy Chairperson Alexei Chepa said on May 12th that Russia cannot trust Ukraine in any negotiations, referring to Ukraine’s violation of former agreements and Russian imposed unilateral ceasefires.
No formal response
As of Tuesday morning, GMT, there has been no official response to Zelenskyys invitation by the Kremlin. Lower-level Russian officials, however, indicate that Putin is not likely to travel to Istanbul.
Putin sees Zelenskyy as legitimate
Russia has continued to push the false narrative of the Ukrainian government being illigitimate. If Putin agrees to meet with Zelenskyy, this would deflate that narrative, as Putin would then recognize Zelenskyy as the Ukrainian head-of-state.
What about the ICC?
In 2023, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant on Vladimir Putin, charging him with “unlawful deportation and transfer of Ukrainian children from occupied areas of Ukraine to the Russian Federation”. In theory, Putin would be liable to arrest if he travels to Turkey, but it is more likely that Turkey would ignore the arrest warrant.
Sanctions coming
On Monday, European leaders warned Putin that, if he did not accept the proposed 30-day ceasefire before midnight, Russia would be hit with harsh, additional sanctions.