Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
The Russian Foreign Intelligence Service claims to have intelligence showing the West planning to supply Ukraine with nuclear or “dirty” bombs.
Russia may exploit fears of a radiological emergency in Ukraine to shape global opinion and undermine Kyiv, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) writes in its February 24, 2026, update on the war.
The warning comes as Moscow escalates its nuclear rhetoric toward Western nations debating long-term security arrangements for Ukraine.
The Washington-based Institute think tank says the Kremlin is sharpening its messaging as discussions intensify among European allies.
Unfounded accussations against Ukraine
To understand why the ISW suggests the possibility of a false-flag radiation incident in Russia, we need to have a look at statements from The Foreign Intelligence Service of the Russian Federation (SVR).
On February 24, 2026, the SVR claimed to have information of France and the UK allegedly planning on supplying Ukraine with nuclear or “dirty” bombs.
Dirty bombs are radiated conventional weapons, meaning they do not have the same blast impact as nuclear weapons, but will still cause radiation following a strike.
The SVR did not provide any evidence for the claims, which has been dismissed by both Ukraine, UK and France.
Fears of provocation
The ISW cautioned that Russia could seek to manipulate any radiological incident on Ukrainian territory for political gain.
The think tank suggests Moscow might either engineer or exploit such an event and then accuse Kyiv of deploying nuclear or radiological materials.
Such a move, the update says, would be designed to erode international support for Ukraine and unsettle the Ukrainian public.
Sources: Institute for the Study of War, media reports
