Kathrine Frich
The sudden political shock in Venezuela has drawn attention far beyond diplomatic circles.
A single online betting account placed a series of well-timed wagers that have now raised eyebrows among analysts and social media users alike.
The timing, scale and focus of the bets have prompted questions about how much the bettor may have known in advance.
Unusual wagers
According to News.ro, experts flagged a cluster of suspicious bets placed on the prediction market Polymarket shortly before a US-led operation in Venezuela.
The unnamed user wagered heavily on President Nicolás Maduro leaving power before the end of January. The account appeared to be new, with its first activity dating back to December 27.
The bets stood out because they focused almost exclusively on two outcomes: a rapid fall from power by Maduro or a direct intervention by US armed forces, Le Figaro reported.
Confidence grows
The bettor began cautiously, placing $96 on a US operation before January 31, followed by $123.34 on Maduro’s departure by the same date.
Confidence appeared to increase sharply in the new year. Between January 1 at 23:57 GMT and January 3 at 2:58 GMT, the user staked a total of $31,215 on Maduro leaving office within the month.
At the time, shares for a “yes” outcome were trading at just seven or eight cents, suggesting the market viewed the scenario as unlikely.
A lucrative outcome
The capture of Nicolás Maduro on Saturday, January 3, transformed those bets into a major payout.
The user collected $436,759.61 from a total stake of $32,538.34, making a profit of more than $400,000.
Losses were limited to just under $6,000 on smaller bets related to an invasion of Venezuela or a formal declaration of war.
Questions raised
Online users quickly highlighted the transactions, questioning whether the bettor may have had access to confidential information, especially given the account’s lack of prior history.
US authorities later said the Venezuela operation had been in preparation for several months and was planned for the holiday period, pending favourable weather conditions.
Polymarket was contacted by several US outlets, including The Verge and Axios, to clarify whether the bets complied with platform rules, but did not respond.
Sources: News.ro, Le Figaro, The Verge, Axios, Digi24
