Camilla Jessen
Germany’s intelligence chief says the Kremlin could stage provocations in the Baltics similar to the Crimea takeover.
Germany’s outgoing intelligence chief, Bruno Kahl, has warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin could try to spark a conflict in the Baltic region under the guise of protecting Russian-speaking populations.
Speaking to Reuters, Kahl said Russia does not appear to be planning a large-scale military invasion involving tanks or bombings.
Instead, Moscow may deploy operatives without military insignia, often referred to as “little green men”, into Estonia, claiming to safeguard ethnic Russians in the area.
According to Kahl, this would be an attempt to probe NATO’s readiness to defend its member states.
He stressed that intelligence assessments confirm Ukraine is not Russia’s final objective.
“We are absolutely sure, and we have intelligence evidence, that Ukraine is just a step on Russia’s path to the West,” Kahl stated.
NATO’s Credibility in the Kremlin’s Crosshairs
Kahl believes a faction within the Russian leadership doubts that NATO would respond forcefully if one of its members were attacked.
“They no longer believe that NATO’s Article Five works. And they would like to test it,” he said.
He added that Russia’s broader goal is to weaken NATO, return it to its pre-2000s status, and push the United States out of Europe.
“They want to throw America out of Europe and they will use any means necessary to achieve this,” Kahl warned.
Kahl also sees no value in holding talks with Moscow at this point. He noted that Putin’s position remains unchanged and focused on an aggressive strategy.
“It is pointless to negotiate with Moscow now,” he said.
Estonia Strengthens Its Defenses
Concerns over Russia’s intentions are also being echoed in Estonia.
Kaido Tiitus, adviser to the vice-chancellor of the Estonian Ministry of Defense, has stated that Russia remains the primary military threat.
“Russia is and will be the biggest threat to Estonia’s security,” he said.
While the war in Ukraine has weakened Russia’s offensive capability, Tiitus warned it could rebuild its strength within two to three years.
Estonia has already begun taking steps to bolster its border defenses. In April 2025, the country announced plans to open a new military base in Narva, near the Russian border. More than 200 Estonian and allied troops will be stationed there.
This follows the opening of the Reedo military base in September 2024, also near the Russian border, designed to host up to 1,000 troops and serve as a strategic gathering point under NATO plans.
In addition, Estonia is constructing a defensive line of 600 fortified structures along the eastern border.
The first phase includes 14 bunkers in the northeast and four more in the southeast, due for completion by autumn this year.