Kathrine Frich
Public expectations about how soon the war might end are shifting in Ukraine.
New polling suggests a gradual decline in optimism, even as resolve to continue resisting remains strong.
The findings come from a nationwide survey conducted in late January, offering a snapshot of public mood after months of continued fighting and pressure on civilian life.
Changing expectations
Only 21% of Ukrainians now believe the war could end in the coming weeks or during the first half of 2026, according to a survey by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS).
That figure is down from 26% in December 2025 and 33% in September–October 2025.
Another 18% expect the war to end in the second half of 2026, while the largest share, 43%, believe it will continue into 2027 or beyond.
A further 19% said they found it difficult to give an estimate.
Compared with earlier polling, the results point to a steady reduction in the number of people who foresee an end by mid-2026, reflecting a more cautious public outlook.
Endurance remains high
Despite lower expectations for a quick resolution, most Ukrainians say they are prepared to continue enduring the war. According to KIIS, 65% of respondents stated they were ready to hold out “for as long as necessary.”
Another 17% said they could endure the war for six months or several months.
These figures are broadly consistent with earlier surveys conducted in September and December 2025.
The sociologists noted:
“That is, we are currently not observing any significant changes in public mood. Despite Russia’s large-scale attempts to create a humanitarian catastrophe, the same majority of Ukrainians are still determined to continue their resistance until an acceptable outcome is achieved.”
Regional differences
Readiness to endure the war remains high across all regions surveyed. KIIS reported figures ranging from 58% to 72%, with Kyiv showing the highest level of long-term endurance at 72%.
In western regions, 66% said they were prepared to endure as long as needed, compared with 64% in the centre and north excluding Kyiv, 64% in the south, and 58% in the east.
Reasons for fatigue
Respondents who did not say they were ready to endure indefinitely were asked why.
The most common reasons were deaths and fear for loved ones’ lives (29%), shelling and destruction (17%), economic hardship (17%), problems with electricity or heating (15%), and psychological strain (10%).
KIIS added that only 5% of the adult population linked their inability to endure the war to electricity or heating issues.
Survey background
The survey was conducted from 23 to 29 January using telephone interviews with 1,003 adults living in Ukrainian government-controlled territory.
Ukrainians living abroad since February 2022 and residents of occupied areas were not included.
Sources: Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), Pravda Ukraine.
