Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
It could potentially ignite a civil war and maybe even force Russia to start a third Chechen war.
In mid-January 2026, rumours surrounding the health of the “Chechen Butcher”, Ramzan Kadyrov, began to surface once again.
Reports from Ukrainian intelligence, cited by Ukraine’s state news agency Ukrinform, said that the 49-year-old dictator, who has been ruling Chechnya for nearly 20 years, was suffering from kidney failure. The Moscow Times reported at the time that he was looking for a possible successor.
GB News even reported that the dictator was “left in a coma”, allegedly claiming he had been poisoned.
It is not the first time rumours about the health of Putin’s strongman have filled the news, but he has reportedly not been seen in public since the beginning of 2026, adding to speculation that the dictator is, indeed, gravely ill.
But what does this mean for Putin? And for Ukraine?
Possible revolution coming
On February 14, 2026, Eastern Europe expert Dr. Julie Wilhelmsen told The Sun that there is a very real possibility of the Chechen public rising against the Kadyrovs and removing the family from power.
That assessment echoes a February 6, 2026 article from The i Paper, in which author and scholar focusing on Eurasia, Max Hess, explains that the possible death of Kadyrov could cause insurgent groups to try to seize power across the 17,300 km² territory.
But if that were to happen, the question is how Putin will react.
Kremlin-backed dictator
Kadyrov took power after two bloody civil wars in Chechnya, first in the mid-1990s and then from 1999 to 2009. Russia had lost the first civil war, but when it re-invaded in 1999, the territory was brought “back” under Russian control after having been part of the Soviet Union.
In the first conflict alone, at least 50,000 civilians are estimated to have died, and during the second war, the capital was completely destroyed.
In 2007, Putin appointed Ramzan Kadyrov the new leader of Chechnya, and since then, he has ruled the republic with an iron fist.
If Kadyrov were to die tomorrow, Putin would likely want to re-invade Chechnya to quell any possible insurrection. However, when Russia invaded Chechnya in 1999, it was not caught up in a four-year-long war, as it currently is in Ukraine.
With over 1.2 million estimated casualties and billions of dollars’ worth of equipment lost, will Russia even have the power to stage a new invasion of Chechnya?
Yes, but it will probably hurt Russian operations in Ukraine.
Dwindling Russian troops
On February 15, 2026, UK Defence Secretary John Healey told Bloomberg that Russia is losing more troops in Ukraine than it can replenish — an assessment echoed by several analysts.
This means the Kremlin is increasingly relying on foreign fighters to sustain its war effort.
Putin has been reluctant to introduce nationwide mobilisations in Russia because it would damage his image of being in control of the situation, as well as risk protests among the struggling Russian public.
But chances are Putin will not let his stronghold of Chechnya fall into the hands of someone he did not personally appoint, so he will be forced to send troops to invade Chechnya if an insurrection begins to gain a foothold following Kadyrov’s possible death.
This would require thousands of troops and a large amount of equipment — something the Russian army is lacking due to Ukraine’s fierce defence.
Kadyrov has also sent troops to support Russian fighting in Ukraine, meaning the already dwindling Russian numbers would lose a steady stream of reinforcements if a civil war in Chechnya breaks out.
Sources: The Moscow Times, POLITICO, New Voice of Ukraine, Ukrainian intelligence reports, Ukrinform, GB News, The Sun, The i Paper, Bloomberg
