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According to an anonymous source, the crisis could hit in “three to four months”.
After two years of war-driven expansion, Russia’s economy has already lost momentum.
The Moscow Times previously reported that growth slowed to 1 percent in 2025, with most civilian industries contracting and debt burdens rising sharply.
Russia’s central bank estimates that more than 10 trillion rubles ($130 billion) in loans have turned nonperforming, underscoring mounting stress across lenders.
Bloomberg reported on Jan. 31 that the Kremlin is searching for up to 1.2 trillion rubles ($16 billion) in new revenue to stabilize budget targets.
Behind the scenes, the warnings are becoming harder to contain – and Putin’s own financial team seems to be trying to get the Russian leader to understand, what is coming.
Quiet alarms
According to The Washington Post, members of President Vladimir Putin’s financial team have cautioned that Russia could face a large-scale economic crisis in the second quarter of 2026.
Officials reportedly warned that budget shortfalls will continue to grow unless taxes are raised again. At the same time, high interest rates and the forced redirection of corporate lending to support the war in Ukraine are straining Russia’s banking sector, The Post reported.
A Moscow-based businessman speaking anonymously told the newspaper the downturn could arrive in “three or four months.”
He also said inflation on the ground appears to be far higher than the officially reported 6 percent, even as the central bank holds interest rates at 16 percent.
Oil and pressure
Falling oil income is a central driver of the widening deficits, the report warns, according to The Washington Post.
Lower global prices and Western efforts to disrupt Russia’s so-called shadow tanker fleet are cutting into export earnings and exposing the Kremlin to political risk.
“This is a threat not just for the economy, but also it’s a political question about whether Russia can allow such actions [forcible shipping disruptions] without losing its political reputation,” the paper quoted a Russian academic “close to senior Moscow diplomats.”
Sources: The Washington Post, Bloomberg, The Moscow Times, New Voice of Ukraine
