Russia Anticipated to Intensify Attacks Ahead of U.S. Aid Package to Ukraine

Written by Henrik Rothen

Apr.21 - 2024 11:58 AM CET

As a new U.S. aid package looms, Russia may ramp up military actions. What does this mean for Ukraine?

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Before the dust even settles on the United States' latest financial commitment to Ukraine—amounting to a staggering $60 billion in military aid—predictions from a prominent Washington think tank suggest that Russia is likely to intensify its military offensive.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) released an analysis indicating that the Kremlin aims to capitalize on the window before enhanced U.S. support can be deployed to bolster Ukrainian defenses.

A Critical Window for Conflict

The ISW's analysis highlights a potential increase in Russian aggression, with a focus on exploiting current gaps in Ukraine's military resources.

"The situation on the frontline will likely become increasingly difficult for the Ukrainians for a period," the ISW report states, underscoring the urgency of the anticipated Russian maneuvers.

As the U.S. gears up to dispatch substantial aid, the think tank forecasts a spike in missile and drone attacks aiming to press this advantage.

A Shift in Momentum?

Looking towards the warmer months, the ISW remains cautiously optimistic about Ukraine's prospects.

"By June, Ukraine's situation should be stabilized and improved," suggests the think tank, hinting at a pivotal shift once U.S. support materializes on the ground.

This period may also compel the Russian military to reassess and possibly adjust its strategies for a rumored summer offensive.

Beyond the immediate tactical calculations, the ISW considers the upcoming U.S. assistance as a "critical turning point in the war in Ukraine." However, the report also reflects on the broader strategic landscape, indicating that "the Kremlin, the West, and Ukraine still face several major decisions ahead that will be crucial to the nature and course of the conflict."

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