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Russia loses ground in Kazakhstan

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Draft constitution signals subtle shift from Moscow.

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Kazakhstan has proposed changes to its constitution that would subtly alter the status of the Russian language.

According to the draft published in the newspaper Kazahstanskaya Pravda and cited by Russia’s TASS news agency, “Kazakh is the official state language of the Republic of Kazakhstan. The Russian language may also be used alongside the Kazakh language in public institutions and local government authorities.”

The current constitution states that Russian is used “equally” with Kazakh in state institutions. The proposed change replaces “equally” with “alongside.”

The draft also affirms that every citizen has the right to use their native language and choose the language of communication, education and creative activity.

Kazakhstan is home to approximately 2.9 million ethnic Russians, around 14% of the population.

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A symbolic change

Ukraine’s Center for Combating Disinformation argued that the revised wording reflects a broader policy trend of reducing Russian influence.

“Kazakh is becoming the de facto main language of the country. In public administration, education, and the public sphere, the use of the Kazakh language increasingly predominates over the Russian language,” the center said.

In December, Kazakhstan moved to close financial loopholes that Western officials said had allowed Russia to bypass sanctions via local banks.

Referendum and political reform

The proposed constitutional changes will be put to a nationwide referendum on 15 March. Voters will be asked whether they approve the draft constitution published on 12 February.

According to Reuters, the new constitution would replace the current bicameral parliament with a single legislative chamber, reduce the number of lawmakers and reinstate the position of vice president.

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President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev is currently limited to a single seven-year term ending in 2029, under amendments he introduced in 2022. While the draft maintains a single seven-year term limit, analysts note that adopting a new constitution could potentially reset term calculations.

Tokayev has previously said he would leave office in 2029.

Regional context

The proposed reforms come at a sensitive time for Kazakhstan. The country is grappling with double-digit inflation and economic pressures partly linked to the war in Ukraine. Its oil industry, which accounts for roughly 2% of global production, has also faced disruption.

Since 2022, Tokayev has consolidated power following nationwide unrest that left hundreds dead. He subsequently removed former president Nursultan Nazarbayev from key positions of influence.

Sources: TASS, Reuters, Center for Combating Disinformation, Kazahstanskaya Pravda, Ziare

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