Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
According to the agency, the Russians plan to plant fragments from Western weaponry.
The Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine (FIS) has issued a warning about what it says is a renewed effort by the Kremlin to derail US-mediated peace talks.
Officials say the campaign blends disinformation with the risk of violent escalation, aimed at shaping public opinion inside Russia and abroad at a sensitive diplomatic moment.
Growing risks
In a statement from January 2 2026, the service said the operation intensified after the reported “attack on putin’s residence”, which it described as a pretext for circulating new falsified claims.
Ukrainian intelligence believes these narratives are intended to prepare audiences for a sharp escalation, moving beyond information manipulation.
“We predict with high probability a transition from manipulative influence to the special services’ armed provocation, resulting in significant human casualties,” the statement said.
The agency did not provide any concrete evidence to support the warning.
Possible scenarios
The agency said the anticipated timing could coincide with Christmas celebrations observed under the Julian calendar (January 7).
Potential targets, FIS warned, could include religious buildings or other sites with strong cultural or political meaning, either inside Russia or in territories of Ukraine under Russian occupation.
To fabricate evidence implicating Kyiv, the service said fragments of Western-made strike drones could be planted at the scene, allegedly transported from active combat zones.
Pattern alleged
Ukrainian officials said carrying out attacks with civilian casualties under a “foreign flag” aligns with what they describe as established methods of Russian special services.
They added that similar tactics have been used inside Russia in the past and are now being projected beyond its borders, citing public remarks by senior Russian officials as indirect confirmation.
The statement concluded with an appeal to journalists and editors to scrutinize Kremlin-issued materials carefully and avoid amplifying what it called Russian disinformation.
Sources: Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine
