August M
The planet could be approaching a climatic threshold beyond which warming accelerates beyond human control, researchers have warned.
According to The Guardian, scientists say continued greenhouse gas emissions risk pushing Earth towards a “point of no return”, locking in changes that would reshape societies and ecosystems for centuries.
Global temperatures have already risen by about 1.3C above pre-industrial levels in recent years. The concern is that further heating could trigger self-reinforcing changes in the climate system.
Profound risks
Prof Tim Lenton, a climate tipping points expert at the University of Exeter, said the current trajectory carries serious dangers even before any worst-case scenario unfolds.
“We know we are running profound risks on the current climate trajectory, which we can’t rule out could turn into a trajectory towards a much less habitable state of the climate for us,” he said. “However, we don’t need to be heading towards a hothouse Earth for there to be profound risks to humanity and our societies – these will already be upon us if we continue to 3C global warming.”
Researchers argue that uncertainty about exactly where these thresholds lie makes rapid emissions cuts essential.
What tipping means
Climate “tipping elements” refer to major components of the Earth system that can shift abruptly once warming crosses a certain level. Instead of gradual change, these systems may flip into new states, potentially amplifying global heating.
Examples include vast ice sheets, large forest systems and ocean circulation patterns. If destabilised, they could release additional greenhouse gases, accelerate sea-level rise or disrupt global weather patterns.
The new assessment, published in the journal One Earth, reviewed evidence on 16 such elements. Scientists involved in the study said some may already be showing signs of strain.
Dr Christopher Wolf of Terrestrial Ecosystems Research Associates in the US said: “Crossing even some of the thresholds could commit the planet to a hothouse trajectory.
“Policymakers and the public remain largely unaware of the risks posed by what would effectively be a point-of-no-return transition.
“It’s likely that global temperatures are already as warm as, or warmer than, at any point in the last 125,000 years and that climate change is advancing faster than many scientists predicted.”
Escalating concern
The researchers warned that interacting tipping points could set off cascading effects, reinforcing warming even if emissions were later reduced.
They concluded that current climate commitments are not enough to eliminate the risk of triggering destabilising changes, and urged swift action to avoid locking in what they describe as a far less hospitable world.
Sources: The Guardian
