August M
A new peer-reviewed study suggests the human cost of the war in Gaza during its first 16 months was significantly higher than official figures indicated at the time.
Research published in The Lancet Global Health estimates that more than 75,000 people were killed between October 2023 and early January 2025, reports The Guardian.
Higher than reported
The study found the death toll during that period was at least 25,000 higher than figures released by Gaza’s health authorities at the time.
According to the authors, 42,200 women, children and elderly people were among those killed, accounting for 56% of violent deaths recorded in the territory.
“The combined evidence suggests that, as of 5 January 2025, 3-4% of the population of the Gaza Strip had been killed violently and there have been a substantial number of non-violent deaths caused indirectly by the conflict,” the research team wrote.
The findings were based on a survey of 2,000 carefully selected families across Gaza, conducted by Palestinian pollsters, alongside statistical modelling.
Indirect deaths
The researchers estimated that around 8,200 deaths during the period were caused indirectly by the war, including from malnutrition and untreated illnesses.
Michael Spagat, an economist at Royal Holloway, University of London and one of the study’s authors, said casualty patterns vary significantly between conflicts.
“There is a huge variation depending on the specific circumstances of every conflict,” he said, noting that in some wars most deaths are violent, while in others indirect causes dominate.
“I would push back on the notion that this is a small number of deaths. I think we’re experiencing desensitisation effects …. But, yes, it’s much lower than what many people say and believe.”
Disputed figures
The total number of deaths in Gaza has been heavily contested since the war began after Hamas launched an attack on Israel on 7 October 2023, killing around 1,200 people and taking about 250 hostages.
Israel’s subsequent military campaign devastated much of the territory. Gaza health authorities now report more than 71,660 people have been killed in Israeli attacks, including hundreds since a ceasefire began in October 2025.
Last month, a senior Israeli security official told journalists that the health ministry’s data were broadly accurate, marking a shift from previous official criticism of the figures.
The new study also challenges Israeli claims that combatants and non-combatants were killed in roughly equal numbers.
Researchers cautioned that establishing a definitive toll could take years and may never be fully achieved.
Sources: The Guardian, The Lancet Global Health
