August M
Ukraine stands firm as Russia faces impossible timeline
Ukraine stands firm as Russia faces impossible timeline
Russia’s war in Ukraine drags into its fourth year
What President Vladimir Putin once claimed would be over in three or four days has turned into a long and costly war, now nearing its fourth year.
After initial advances and a powerful Ukrainian counteroffensive in 2022, the front lines have barely moved. WP Wiadomości reports that The Economist recently calculated just how long it would take Russia to conquer all of Ukraine — and the estimate is staggering.
It would take 103 years to occupy all of Ukraine
According to The Economist, at the pace of Russia’s current offensive, it would take until June 2030 just to occupy the remaining parts of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia — four regions Putin already claims. To fully occupy the entire country? That would take another 103 years.
A front that hasn’t shifted since 2022
WP Wiadomości notes that since Ukraine’s first major counteroffensive ended in October 2022, there has been no significant change in territorial control.
The Economist emphasizes that “no major city changed hands,” underscoring how static the battlefield has become despite continued offensives and enormous losses.
Russian losses now top a million
Citing The Economist, the article reports that between February 2022 and January 2025, Russia lost between 640,000 and 877,000 troops — with between 137,000 and 228,000 killed.
From January to mid-October 2025 alone, losses surged by nearly 60%, with updated estimates ranging from 984,000 to 1.438 million total casualties, including up to 480,000 dead.
Summer offensive ends in failure
WP Wiadomości highlights that Russia’s 2025 summer offensive failed to deliver strategic gains and instead resulted in devastating losses.
The Economist wrote that the operation “did not bring Russia the expected results and instead led to huge losses on the front.”
Why no sudden breakthrough is expected
The analysis notes that a swift collapse of Ukrainian defenses is unlikely. According to The Economist, “a sudden collapse of Ukrainian defense lines is unlikely given the way both armies are waging war,” citing constant drone surveillance and long-range precision weapons that make troop concentrations near the front suicidal.
Russian capacity may be breaking
In the same article, The Economist warns that Russia’s ability to keep up its current pace of war may be faltering.
The outlet concludes: “And if Putin insists on continuing the war, he will risk even more. After three years of failed offensives, a sudden collapse may prove more likely for Russia’s war economy than for Ukraine’s defenses.”
Putin pushes for territory in private talks
WP Wiadomości also references The Washington Post, which reported that during a phone call with Donald Trump, Putin demanded Ukraine give up key territory.
U.S. officials said that such a concession would severely weaken Ukraine and could derail any chance of peace.
Donbas remains fiercely contested
The article underscores that Putin has spent 11 years trying to take control of the Donbas region, which Ukraine continues to defend fiercely.
WP Wiadomości describes how Ukrainian forces remain deeply entrenched, seeing the area as a crucial barrier to prevent Russian forces from pushing westward toward Kyiv.
An unwinnable timeline
With no breakthrough in sight, exhausted armies, and massive losses, Russia’s dream of occupying Ukraine grows increasingly distant.
As The Economist calculates, achieving total control could take more than a century — a figure that makes clear how unrealistic those ambitions are in the face of Ukrainian resistance and military limits.
This article is made and published by auk1, which may have used AI in the preparation
